LG KE970 Shine
17 years ago
Showing posts with label World Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Stocks. Show all posts
Friday, June 5, 2009
Using Weekly And Monthly Charts To Invest In The Stock Market
A mistake many investors make is that the longest time frame they will look at when it comes to technical analysis is the daily chart. However this chart doesn't always tell the whole story and in a lot of cases it's a lot more profitable to invest in shares based on what the weekly or monthly charts are saying. One of the best set of indicators you can use are the exponential moving averages. I personally like to plot the 5, 20, 50 and 200 period EMAs on my charts because they are extremely useful indicators. They work well on the daily charts but they are even more dependable on the weekly or monthly charts. The key is to look for important EMA crossovers for a change in trend. After you get one of these crossovers you will often see the price continue to move in this direction for several weeks or months before it reverses and crosses in the opposite direction. In the meantime you can bank some significant profits. You can use the EMA (20) crossing the EMA (50) as a good signal but I personally prefer using the EMA (5) crossing the EMA (20) as my preferred signal. As I say this works well on the daily chart alone but when you increase the time frame, you get far bigger price moves. In fact sometimes you can catch a trend that lasts several years and creates substantial profits. You can also use the downwards crossover as either a sell signal or as an opportunity to go short of a stock. For instance if you look at the monthly chart of any of the banks, let's take Royal Bank of Scotland as an example, you will see that the EMA (5) crossed downwards through the EMA (20) in July 2007 and still hasn't crossed back upwards. In this time the share price has fallen from around 600p to just 20p. So obviously a very profitable long-term short position and it's the same with many other companies, not just the banks. If you look at the daily charts, however, you will see that there are a lot more crossovers using the same period EMAs so you don't always capture these big gains using this time frame. If the weekly or monthly chart is too long a time frame to use, then you should use them to identify the longer term trend if nothing else. For instance if the weekly or monthly chart is trending upwards, then you should look for buying opportunities on the daily chart. The point is that you should always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts because they can provide you with some invaluable information (and trading opportunities). The trends on these longer term time frames can last for months, and even years in some cases.
When All Stocks Are Value Stocks - Think QDI
Value stocks are those that tend to trade at lower prices relative to their fundamental characteristics than their more speculative cousins, the growth stocks; they have higher than usual dividend yields and lower P/E and P/B ratios. So when all stock prices are down significantly, have they all become value stocks? Or, based on the panicky fear that tends to overwhelm media and financial experts alike, haven't they all taken on the speculative characteristics of growth stocks?
Well, to a certain extent they have, because the lower value stock prices go, the more likely it is that they will eventually experience the 15% ROE that typifies the classic growth stock. Interestingly, by definition, growth stocks are expected to be associated with profitable companies, a fact that speculators often lose site of. There are three features that separate value stocks from growth stocks and two that separate Investment Grade Value (IGV) stocks from the average, run-of-the-mill, variety.
Value stocks pay dividends, and have lower ratios than growth stocks. IGV stock companies also have long-term histories of profitability and an S & P rating of B+ or higher. Would you be surprised to learn that neither the DJIA nor the S & P 500 contains particularly high numbers of IGV stocks? Still, since 1982, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks 62% of the time. So when an ugly correction has a makeover, it's likely that all value stocks transform themselves into growth stocks, at least temporarily.
Will Rogers summed up the stock selection quandary nicely with: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misunderstood this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the buy-anything-high investment club. You need dig no further than the current lists (June '08) of "most advancing issues" to see how investors are buying commodity companies and financial futures at the highest prices in the history of mankind.
This while they are shunning IGVSI (Investment Grade Value Stock Index) companies that have plummeted to their most attractive price levels in three to five years. Many of the very best multinational companies in the world are at historically low prices. Wall Street smiles knowingly (and greedily) as Main Street hucksters tout gold, currencies, and oil futures as retirement plan safety nets. Regulatory agencies look the other way as speculations worm their way into qualified plans of all varieties. Surely those markets will be regulated some day--- after the next Bazooka-pink, gooey mess becomes history.
How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a more realistic investment strategy--- one with security selection guidelines and realistic performance definitions and expectations.
If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it works, you're being too short-term sighted--- the investment markets operate in cycles. If you insist on comparing your performance with indices and averages, you'll rarely be satisfied. A viable investment strategy will be a three-dimensional decision model, and all three decisions are equally important. Few strategies include a targeted profit taking discipline--- dimension two. The first dimension involves the selection of securities. The third?
How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? We've discussed the features of value and growth stocks and seen how any number of companies can qualify as either dependent upon where we are in terms of the market cycle or where they are in terms of their own industry, sector, or business cycles. Value stocks (and the debt securities of value stock companies) tend to be safer than growth stocks. But IGVSI stocks are super-screened by a unique rating system that is based on company survival statistics--- very important stuff.
In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known value fund manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as value stocks, he was told to change his definition--- or else. IGV stocks include a quality element that minimizes the risk of loss and normally smoothes the angles in the market cycle. The market value highs are typically not as high, but the market value lows are most often not as low as they are with either growth or Wall Street definition value stocks. They work best in conjunction with portfolios that have an income allocation of at least 30%--- you need to know why.
How do we create a confidence building IGV stock selection universe without getting bogged down in endless research? Here are five filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality companies: (1) An S & P rating of B+ or better. Standard & Poor's combines many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the companies. Anything rated lower adds more risk to your portfolio.
(2) A history of profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is inherently less risky. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. (3) A history of regular, even increasing, dividend payments. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. Dividend changes are important, absolute size is not.
(4) A Reasonable Price Range. Most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and only a few trade at levels above $100. An unusually high price may be caused by higher sector or company-specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. (5) An NYSE listing--- just because it's easier.
Your selection universe will become the backbone of your equity asset allocation, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established--- no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. There are approximately 450 IGV stocks to choose from--- and you'll find the name recognition comforting. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster.
The QDI? Quality, diversification, and income.
Well, to a certain extent they have, because the lower value stock prices go, the more likely it is that they will eventually experience the 15% ROE that typifies the classic growth stock. Interestingly, by definition, growth stocks are expected to be associated with profitable companies, a fact that speculators often lose site of. There are three features that separate value stocks from growth stocks and two that separate Investment Grade Value (IGV) stocks from the average, run-of-the-mill, variety.
Value stocks pay dividends, and have lower ratios than growth stocks. IGV stock companies also have long-term histories of profitability and an S & P rating of B+ or higher. Would you be surprised to learn that neither the DJIA nor the S & P 500 contains particularly high numbers of IGV stocks? Still, since 1982, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks 62% of the time. So when an ugly correction has a makeover, it's likely that all value stocks transform themselves into growth stocks, at least temporarily.
Will Rogers summed up the stock selection quandary nicely with: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misunderstood this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the buy-anything-high investment club. You need dig no further than the current lists (June '08) of "most advancing issues" to see how investors are buying commodity companies and financial futures at the highest prices in the history of mankind.
This while they are shunning IGVSI (Investment Grade Value Stock Index) companies that have plummeted to their most attractive price levels in three to five years. Many of the very best multinational companies in the world are at historically low prices. Wall Street smiles knowingly (and greedily) as Main Street hucksters tout gold, currencies, and oil futures as retirement plan safety nets. Regulatory agencies look the other way as speculations worm their way into qualified plans of all varieties. Surely those markets will be regulated some day--- after the next Bazooka-pink, gooey mess becomes history.
How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a more realistic investment strategy--- one with security selection guidelines and realistic performance definitions and expectations.
If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it works, you're being too short-term sighted--- the investment markets operate in cycles. If you insist on comparing your performance with indices and averages, you'll rarely be satisfied. A viable investment strategy will be a three-dimensional decision model, and all three decisions are equally important. Few strategies include a targeted profit taking discipline--- dimension two. The first dimension involves the selection of securities. The third?
How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? We've discussed the features of value and growth stocks and seen how any number of companies can qualify as either dependent upon where we are in terms of the market cycle or where they are in terms of their own industry, sector, or business cycles. Value stocks (and the debt securities of value stock companies) tend to be safer than growth stocks. But IGVSI stocks are super-screened by a unique rating system that is based on company survival statistics--- very important stuff.
In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known value fund manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as value stocks, he was told to change his definition--- or else. IGV stocks include a quality element that minimizes the risk of loss and normally smoothes the angles in the market cycle. The market value highs are typically not as high, but the market value lows are most often not as low as they are with either growth or Wall Street definition value stocks. They work best in conjunction with portfolios that have an income allocation of at least 30%--- you need to know why.
How do we create a confidence building IGV stock selection universe without getting bogged down in endless research? Here are five filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality companies: (1) An S & P rating of B+ or better. Standard & Poor's combines many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the companies. Anything rated lower adds more risk to your portfolio.
(2) A history of profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is inherently less risky. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. (3) A history of regular, even increasing, dividend payments. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. Dividend changes are important, absolute size is not.
(4) A Reasonable Price Range. Most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and only a few trade at levels above $100. An unusually high price may be caused by higher sector or company-specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. (5) An NYSE listing--- just because it's easier.
Your selection universe will become the backbone of your equity asset allocation, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established--- no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. There are approximately 450 IGV stocks to choose from--- and you'll find the name recognition comforting. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster.
The QDI? Quality, diversification, and income.
Stock Market Trading - Winning Trading Plan
Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan. It's as simple as that. If you develop a well-conceived trading plan to guide your actions in the stock market you will already have the advantage over most of your market competition. Put simply, it gives you the edge you need to win over the long haul when trading the stock market or forex market.
A stock market trading plan will not guarantee your success in the markets, but a good plan will enable you to work methodically toward your stock market trading goals while reviewing on a regular basis what is working and what is not. It will act as a roadmap for your trading journey. It will enable you to respond positively and constructively no matter what happens with your individual trades. And, most importantly, it will help you control the only thing a trader can control: his or her own actions.
Finally, stock market trading is a business. It can be a fascinating and sometimes thrilling business, but in the end it is a business. A trading plan helps you treat it as a business.
Here are some important elements of a trading plan.
1. Why am I trading? What are my goals?
The answers to these questions might seem obvious, but they usually are not. Take some time to ask them of yourself, and seriously consider the answers. You may be surprised by what you learn. And whatever the answers, you will have a clearer picture going forward of what this enterprise means to you, and that will help you survive any rough patches.
2. What markets am I going to trade and why?
It is often best to specialize, especially for beginning stock market traders. Many pros make a great living trading the same stock day every single day for years. Choose a market that is appropriate for your experience level and trading style. Consider other factors such as available margin, volatility and liquidity.
3. What is the concept or philosophy behind your trading methodology?
Your trading system must have a concept behind it. Whether you are a value investor like Warren Buffet or a trend trader like George Soros, you should understand why you are doing what you are doing, how your beliefs about the markets define what you will do as a trader.
4. What will be your specific method?
In other words, specifically how will you execute your trading ideas? Will you buy breakouts or pullbacks? Buy oversold or sell overbought? Or will you use specific technical setups such as moving-average crossovers or another indicator-based strategy? Under exactly what conditions will you enter? When will you know to exit?
5. How much money will you risk on any single trade? On trading in general?
This is critical. Of course, start small. But just as importantly, have a plan in place for how much you will risk, emotions don't cloud your judgment when the time comes. The key is to find an allocation that doesn't cause any stress but still makes the trade worthwhile financially. One of the biggest problems with newer traders is that they are trading way too big in relation to their account size. Like when you are forex trading. Trading forex at 100-1 leverage is like introducing your mistress to your wife. Yes, you can do it, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Normally they don't get along too well.
6. What will my trading rules be?
This is also critical. Your trading rules include entry and exit rules, rules governing maximum daily, weekly or monthly losses, maximum risk on any given trade, the maximum number of trades per week, etc., etc. These rules enforce discipline and keep you out of trouble. What stock price will enter at, what stock price will I will exit. Be discplined.
7. How will I record and evaluate my trading performance?
Allow me to repeat myself: This is critical. In fact, this might be the most important element of trading for new traders in the stock market. A new stock market trader who evaluates his trades, winners and losers, in an effort to learn what works and what does not, will make quantum leaps forward in terms of ability and profitability. If you have a working trading plan and evaluate every single one of your trades after you have closed it you have already beaten 95% of the competition.
8. What are my rules for managing profits?
What's the problem with profits? Well, believe it or not there is one, and it's a serious one. It's called euphoria, and it clouds the judgment perhaps more than any other emotion related to trading. Start piling up the profits for the first time and it won't be long before you are convinced you are king of the world. About 30 seconds later you'll be broke, following a series of unwise and exceedingly risky trades. So have a plan for protecting closed profits when you have reached your goals for the week or the month. Don't give them all back.
9. How will I reward myself for following my trading plan?
Don't leave this out. Following your trading plan will bring rewards in the form of profits, but you should also consciously reward yourself for doing so because it is such an important part of successful trading. So if you finish the week or the month (or even the day) without having broken any of your trading rules, find a way to reward yourself. You deserve it. You are in rare company.
If you follow your plan you are improving your chances of becoming successful stock market or forex trader.
Happy Trading
A stock market trading plan will not guarantee your success in the markets, but a good plan will enable you to work methodically toward your stock market trading goals while reviewing on a regular basis what is working and what is not. It will act as a roadmap for your trading journey. It will enable you to respond positively and constructively no matter what happens with your individual trades. And, most importantly, it will help you control the only thing a trader can control: his or her own actions.
Finally, stock market trading is a business. It can be a fascinating and sometimes thrilling business, but in the end it is a business. A trading plan helps you treat it as a business.
Here are some important elements of a trading plan.
1. Why am I trading? What are my goals?
The answers to these questions might seem obvious, but they usually are not. Take some time to ask them of yourself, and seriously consider the answers. You may be surprised by what you learn. And whatever the answers, you will have a clearer picture going forward of what this enterprise means to you, and that will help you survive any rough patches.
2. What markets am I going to trade and why?
It is often best to specialize, especially for beginning stock market traders. Many pros make a great living trading the same stock day every single day for years. Choose a market that is appropriate for your experience level and trading style. Consider other factors such as available margin, volatility and liquidity.
3. What is the concept or philosophy behind your trading methodology?
Your trading system must have a concept behind it. Whether you are a value investor like Warren Buffet or a trend trader like George Soros, you should understand why you are doing what you are doing, how your beliefs about the markets define what you will do as a trader.
4. What will be your specific method?
In other words, specifically how will you execute your trading ideas? Will you buy breakouts or pullbacks? Buy oversold or sell overbought? Or will you use specific technical setups such as moving-average crossovers or another indicator-based strategy? Under exactly what conditions will you enter? When will you know to exit?
5. How much money will you risk on any single trade? On trading in general?
This is critical. Of course, start small. But just as importantly, have a plan in place for how much you will risk, emotions don't cloud your judgment when the time comes. The key is to find an allocation that doesn't cause any stress but still makes the trade worthwhile financially. One of the biggest problems with newer traders is that they are trading way too big in relation to their account size. Like when you are forex trading. Trading forex at 100-1 leverage is like introducing your mistress to your wife. Yes, you can do it, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Normally they don't get along too well.
6. What will my trading rules be?
This is also critical. Your trading rules include entry and exit rules, rules governing maximum daily, weekly or monthly losses, maximum risk on any given trade, the maximum number of trades per week, etc., etc. These rules enforce discipline and keep you out of trouble. What stock price will enter at, what stock price will I will exit. Be discplined.
7. How will I record and evaluate my trading performance?
Allow me to repeat myself: This is critical. In fact, this might be the most important element of trading for new traders in the stock market. A new stock market trader who evaluates his trades, winners and losers, in an effort to learn what works and what does not, will make quantum leaps forward in terms of ability and profitability. If you have a working trading plan and evaluate every single one of your trades after you have closed it you have already beaten 95% of the competition.
8. What are my rules for managing profits?
What's the problem with profits? Well, believe it or not there is one, and it's a serious one. It's called euphoria, and it clouds the judgment perhaps more than any other emotion related to trading. Start piling up the profits for the first time and it won't be long before you are convinced you are king of the world. About 30 seconds later you'll be broke, following a series of unwise and exceedingly risky trades. So have a plan for protecting closed profits when you have reached your goals for the week or the month. Don't give them all back.
9. How will I reward myself for following my trading plan?
Don't leave this out. Following your trading plan will bring rewards in the form of profits, but you should also consciously reward yourself for doing so because it is such an important part of successful trading. So if you finish the week or the month (or even the day) without having broken any of your trading rules, find a way to reward yourself. You deserve it. You are in rare company.
If you follow your plan you are improving your chances of becoming successful stock market or forex trader.
Happy Trading
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Last Bank Standing - The Wall Street Mega-Crash
Dateline Washington, October 19th (get it?) 2010: the Peoples Bank & Trust of America has now established itself as the only bank of any kind in the USA, totally owned and managed by the US House of Representatives. A 2/3 majority must now approve all investment banking transactions; your district representative's staff reviews individual mortgage applications; and all 401(k), IRA, and remaining employer pension assets have been rolled into the Social Security Slush Fund.
Only federal and state elected officials are exempt from the 45% all purpose Income Tax. The estimated time to bring new companies public is 4.5 years; all individual account dividends and interest are paid directly into your IRS "grabber" account; CEO's salaries are limited to 50% of the amount paid to a first year congressman, and any government budget shortfalls are withdrawn from corporate earnings before any corporate obligations can be dealt with.
All employees receive the federal mandated minimum wage, except senior executives who are limited as mentioned above. Scary? This is a scenario that could play out if Congress (or the SEC) does not come to the rescue of the credit markets. You missed your opportunity to help stop it, but chances are a fix is on its way.
How many more businesses, jobs, and hopes will be killed by this irresponsible Congress? When will the average blogger realize that when a corporation fails, we all suffer? One would think that the informed and enlightened could take time out from their texting for a little research and education. Instead, they show their power by influencing public opinion numbers and the marshmallow politicians who worship them. As economist Irwin Kellner and I have pointed out, this is no bailout and we are not nearly approaching a recession.
Kellner's September 28th Market Watch article points out ten major differences between now and then: (1) In 1929, the DJIA plunged 40% in two months vs. around 30% in about a year. (2) In 1933, the jobless rate was 33% vs. 6% today. (3) The GDP shrank 25% then, but has increased 6% now. (4) Consumer prices actually fell 30% then but haven't ever since.
(5) Home prices dropped 30% then, but only 16% from the recent bubbly highs. (6) 40% of all mortgages were in default then vs. only 4% now. (7) 9,000 banks failed in the 1930s compared with just 25 or so (bigger and broader based ones) recently. (8) The Federal Reserve reduced the money supply, (9) raised interest rates, and (10) raised taxes on foreign imports.
Further, Kellner points out, we now have automatic stabilizers, deposit insurances, and market trading restrictions as protective elements. Today's Congress however, has never been good at connecting dots, has accomplished nothing under an unpopular president, and is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.
Educate yourselves on the Accounting Rule's that require institutions to book paying assets at pennies on the dollar. Find out why institutions are afraid to loan money to one another--- over night, at any rate of interest--- strangling the credit markets.
Doing nothing is killing jobs, killing companies, and deferring retirements for those who were counting on 401(k) and IRA dollars to provide them with income. Congress, of course has an old-fashioned pension plan, so it is unaffected by such financial realities.
Investigate the relaxation of lending standards that Congress orchestrated over the past few administrations, before blaming the companies that then extended credit to many speculators and other buyers who falsified application papers. Learn how the SEC was prohibited from regulating the CDOs and other multiple-leveraged credit market speculations. There are as many culprits outside the corporate executive suite as in it.
Congress is bursting with pride over bringing some of the Rich and Famous to their knees, and capping some of their obscene compensation arrangements at still shareholder pillaging levels. I've spoken often about how these salaries need to be controlled. But the multi-level-mortgage-marketing schemes that Congress encouraged must be unbundled somehow, and a buy out is the proper vehicle.
Congress has punished the entire world with its attack on Wall Street, and both parties are to blame. Representatives of the states listed below voted "no" to the credit transfusion, causing death and destruction that, in many instances, cannot be recouped. We have to replace them with better decision makers, representatives who can think in economic terms when they have to.
The number and letter code after the state designation indicates the number of representatives and their party: AL-1R, AK-1R, AZ-4D4R, CA-15D9R, CO-2D2R, CT-1D, FL-1D13R, GA-4D7R, HI-2D, ID-1R, IL-4D5R, IN-3D3R, IA-1D2R, KS-1D2R, KY-2D2R, LA-2D3R, ME-1D, MD-2D1R, MA-3D, MI-3D6R, MN-2D2R, MS-3D, MO-2D3R, MT-1R, NE-3R, NV-1D1R, NH-2D, NJ-3D4R, NM-1D1R, NY-3D1R, NC-3D5R, OH-3D7R, OK-3R, OR-3D, PA-3D7R, SC-1R, SD-1D, TN-1D4R, TX-8D14R, UT-1D1R, VT-1D, VA-1D5R, WA-1D3R, WV-1R, WI-1D2R (Names withheld, but available from the author.)
On Friday evening, candidates Obama and McCain gave their support to the Capital infusion, but neither bothered to explain why--- a huge audience was ready to soak up the information. Over the weekend, both attended meetings to support the plan and to generate support from their respective parties.
Is there enough time left to find a hero?
Only federal and state elected officials are exempt from the 45% all purpose Income Tax. The estimated time to bring new companies public is 4.5 years; all individual account dividends and interest are paid directly into your IRS "grabber" account; CEO's salaries are limited to 50% of the amount paid to a first year congressman, and any government budget shortfalls are withdrawn from corporate earnings before any corporate obligations can be dealt with.
All employees receive the federal mandated minimum wage, except senior executives who are limited as mentioned above. Scary? This is a scenario that could play out if Congress (or the SEC) does not come to the rescue of the credit markets. You missed your opportunity to help stop it, but chances are a fix is on its way.
How many more businesses, jobs, and hopes will be killed by this irresponsible Congress? When will the average blogger realize that when a corporation fails, we all suffer? One would think that the informed and enlightened could take time out from their texting for a little research and education. Instead, they show their power by influencing public opinion numbers and the marshmallow politicians who worship them. As economist Irwin Kellner and I have pointed out, this is no bailout and we are not nearly approaching a recession.
Kellner's September 28th Market Watch article points out ten major differences between now and then: (1) In 1929, the DJIA plunged 40% in two months vs. around 30% in about a year. (2) In 1933, the jobless rate was 33% vs. 6% today. (3) The GDP shrank 25% then, but has increased 6% now. (4) Consumer prices actually fell 30% then but haven't ever since.
(5) Home prices dropped 30% then, but only 16% from the recent bubbly highs. (6) 40% of all mortgages were in default then vs. only 4% now. (7) 9,000 banks failed in the 1930s compared with just 25 or so (bigger and broader based ones) recently. (8) The Federal Reserve reduced the money supply, (9) raised interest rates, and (10) raised taxes on foreign imports.
Further, Kellner points out, we now have automatic stabilizers, deposit insurances, and market trading restrictions as protective elements. Today's Congress however, has never been good at connecting dots, has accomplished nothing under an unpopular president, and is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.
Educate yourselves on the Accounting Rule's that require institutions to book paying assets at pennies on the dollar. Find out why institutions are afraid to loan money to one another--- over night, at any rate of interest--- strangling the credit markets.
Doing nothing is killing jobs, killing companies, and deferring retirements for those who were counting on 401(k) and IRA dollars to provide them with income. Congress, of course has an old-fashioned pension plan, so it is unaffected by such financial realities.
Investigate the relaxation of lending standards that Congress orchestrated over the past few administrations, before blaming the companies that then extended credit to many speculators and other buyers who falsified application papers. Learn how the SEC was prohibited from regulating the CDOs and other multiple-leveraged credit market speculations. There are as many culprits outside the corporate executive suite as in it.
Congress is bursting with pride over bringing some of the Rich and Famous to their knees, and capping some of their obscene compensation arrangements at still shareholder pillaging levels. I've spoken often about how these salaries need to be controlled. But the multi-level-mortgage-marketing schemes that Congress encouraged must be unbundled somehow, and a buy out is the proper vehicle.
Congress has punished the entire world with its attack on Wall Street, and both parties are to blame. Representatives of the states listed below voted "no" to the credit transfusion, causing death and destruction that, in many instances, cannot be recouped. We have to replace them with better decision makers, representatives who can think in economic terms when they have to.
The number and letter code after the state designation indicates the number of representatives and their party: AL-1R, AK-1R, AZ-4D4R, CA-15D9R, CO-2D2R, CT-1D, FL-1D13R, GA-4D7R, HI-2D, ID-1R, IL-4D5R, IN-3D3R, IA-1D2R, KS-1D2R, KY-2D2R, LA-2D3R, ME-1D, MD-2D1R, MA-3D, MI-3D6R, MN-2D2R, MS-3D, MO-2D3R, MT-1R, NE-3R, NV-1D1R, NH-2D, NJ-3D4R, NM-1D1R, NY-3D1R, NC-3D5R, OH-3D7R, OK-3R, OR-3D, PA-3D7R, SC-1R, SD-1D, TN-1D4R, TX-8D14R, UT-1D1R, VT-1D, VA-1D5R, WA-1D3R, WV-1R, WI-1D2R (Names withheld, but available from the author.)
On Friday evening, candidates Obama and McCain gave their support to the Capital infusion, but neither bothered to explain why--- a huge audience was ready to soak up the information. Over the weekend, both attended meetings to support the plan and to generate support from their respective parties.
Is there enough time left to find a hero?
Online Trading, an Option for Transnational Trade
Global deal is exchange of capital, trade goods, and services across transnational frames or territories. In the most of nations, it acts a significant percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). While transnational switch has been represented throughout lots of history (see Silk Road, Amber Road) the economic, cultural, and policy-making importance has been along the rise in last centuries. Industrialization, manufacturers, advanced transportation, globalization, international corporations, and outsourcing are completely having a major affect on the global trade scheme.
Trading globally makes consumers and nations the chance to be exposed to trade goods and services that are not available in their personal nations. Almost each form of product can be seen on the transnational market: food, dress, spare parts, oil, jewellery, wine, stocks, currencies and water. Services are as well traded: tourism, banking, consulting and transportation. A product that is sold to the transnational market is an export, and a product that is bought from the transnational market is an import. Exports and Imports are calculated for in a country's ongoing account in the balance of payments.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, big companies gain up approximately 4 % of U.S. Exports which signifies that 96% of exporters are small companies. Why is transnational trade so crucial to scratch small businesses? In several cases, the products or services you may care to market are not accessible or created in your domicile area. For good example, consider about selling cashmere sweaters. You may need to turn an importer in order to compete with imported products sold by your competitors.
Online business can frequently start trading internationally with very little effort. The internet has transformed things. Your site can be your shop window in some number of nations. You don't require a physical front in each territory to deal there.
A Study by Georgios Papastamkos, MEP on Worldwide Trade on the cyberspace emphasised that the online circumstances for small and medium-size enterprises are especially good since they give more opportunities to get across conventional commercial schemes rather than they had even a . Enterprises are effective to prepare their internet sale points easily, rapidly and at small cost, thereby reaching a higher stage of competitiveness.
If your business is running in a niche, with a relatively smaller internal market, looking to another nations can help you widen your audience with surprisingly little effort. And if your trade goods or services appeal to a larger audience, moving into outside marketplaces gives you the chance to reach a wide number of potency recent clients. It could actually rise your receipts and profits.
Still, in a bigger market there will be more competitor from local companies. It can be heavy to equal up on price or fulfilment when sending internationally, so you might let to modify your proposition to have an touch.
It's not only for producer but for consumers are also receiving profits by online trading,. Since they enjoy a very large option between commodities and services, competitive pricing, lower living costs and a improve excellent of life, they as well don't require to go out to surf all products and services even from wholesale suppliers. They are now better able to compare merchandises and services since they gain access more data on online trading.
Trading globally makes consumers and nations the chance to be exposed to trade goods and services that are not available in their personal nations. Almost each form of product can be seen on the transnational market: food, dress, spare parts, oil, jewellery, wine, stocks, currencies and water. Services are as well traded: tourism, banking, consulting and transportation. A product that is sold to the transnational market is an export, and a product that is bought from the transnational market is an import. Exports and Imports are calculated for in a country's ongoing account in the balance of payments.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, big companies gain up approximately 4 % of U.S. Exports which signifies that 96% of exporters are small companies. Why is transnational trade so crucial to scratch small businesses? In several cases, the products or services you may care to market are not accessible or created in your domicile area. For good example, consider about selling cashmere sweaters. You may need to turn an importer in order to compete with imported products sold by your competitors.
Online business can frequently start trading internationally with very little effort. The internet has transformed things. Your site can be your shop window in some number of nations. You don't require a physical front in each territory to deal there.
A Study by Georgios Papastamkos, MEP on Worldwide Trade on the cyberspace emphasised that the online circumstances for small and medium-size enterprises are especially good since they give more opportunities to get across conventional commercial schemes rather than they had even a . Enterprises are effective to prepare their internet sale points easily, rapidly and at small cost, thereby reaching a higher stage of competitiveness.
If your business is running in a niche, with a relatively smaller internal market, looking to another nations can help you widen your audience with surprisingly little effort. And if your trade goods or services appeal to a larger audience, moving into outside marketplaces gives you the chance to reach a wide number of potency recent clients. It could actually rise your receipts and profits.
Still, in a bigger market there will be more competitor from local companies. It can be heavy to equal up on price or fulfilment when sending internationally, so you might let to modify your proposition to have an touch.
It's not only for producer but for consumers are also receiving profits by online trading,. Since they enjoy a very large option between commodities and services, competitive pricing, lower living costs and a improve excellent of life, they as well don't require to go out to surf all products and services even from wholesale suppliers. They are now better able to compare merchandises and services since they gain access more data on online trading.
Online Trading, an Option for World Trade
International deal is substitute of capital, commodities, and services across world frames or soils. In the most of nations, it being a remarkable percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). While world deal has been represented throughout lots of story (see Silk Road, Amber Road) the economic, social, and political importance has been connected the raise in new centuries. Industrialization, manufacturers, advanced transportation system, globalisation, transnational corporations, and outsourcing are all having a major impact on the transnational trade system.
Trading globally opens consumers and nations the opportunity to be exposed to commodities and services that are not available in their individual nations. Almost each variety of product can be checked on the global market: food, clothes, spare parts, oil, jewelry, wine, stocks, currencies and water. Services are as well traded: tourism, banking, consulting and transportation. A product that is dealt to the worldwide market is an export, and a product that is bought from the worldwide market is an import. Imports and exports are described for in a country's ongoing account in the balance of payments.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, strong companies reach up about 4 % of U.S. Exports which signifies that 96% of exporters are smaller companies. Why is world trade so strategic to begin smaller businesses? In numerous examples, the products or services you may care to market are not available or made in your domicile nation. For illustration, consider about trading cashmere sweaters. You may want to become an importer in order to compete with established products dealt by your competitors.
Online business can oftentimes start trading internationally with very little effort. The cyberspace has metamorphosed things. Your web site can be your store window in some number of nations. You don't need a physical front in every territory to deal there.
A Paper by Georgios Papastamkos, MEP on Transnational Trade on the cyberspace emphasised that the online circumstances for smaller and medium-size enterprises are especially great since they receive more chances to get across conventional commercial systems instead than they had even a last decade. Enterprises are effective to set up their cyberspace sale targets easy, speedily and at little cost, thereby achieving a higher level of fight.
If your business is operating in a niche, with a relatively smaller domestic market, looking to another nations can help you expand your audience with surprisingly little effort. And if your commodities or services attract to a bigger audience, moving into international marketplaces makes you the probability to touch a wide number of potency recent customers. It could really boost your receipts and earnings.
However, in a larger market there will be more competition from local companies. It can be heavy to match up on cost or fulfilment when shipping internationally, so you might let to modify your proposition to have an impact.
It's not only for manufacturer but for consumers are also receiving benefits by online trading,. Since they enjoy a very bigger choice between commodities and services, competitive pricing, lower living costs and a better excellent of life, they as well don't demand to go out to browse all products and services even from wholesale providers. They are today better able to compare productions and services since they take access more selective information on online trading.
Trading globally opens consumers and nations the opportunity to be exposed to commodities and services that are not available in their individual nations. Almost each variety of product can be checked on the global market: food, clothes, spare parts, oil, jewelry, wine, stocks, currencies and water. Services are as well traded: tourism, banking, consulting and transportation. A product that is dealt to the worldwide market is an export, and a product that is bought from the worldwide market is an import. Imports and exports are described for in a country's ongoing account in the balance of payments.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, strong companies reach up about 4 % of U.S. Exports which signifies that 96% of exporters are smaller companies. Why is world trade so strategic to begin smaller businesses? In numerous examples, the products or services you may care to market are not available or made in your domicile nation. For illustration, consider about trading cashmere sweaters. You may want to become an importer in order to compete with established products dealt by your competitors.
Online business can oftentimes start trading internationally with very little effort. The cyberspace has metamorphosed things. Your web site can be your store window in some number of nations. You don't need a physical front in every territory to deal there.
A Paper by Georgios Papastamkos, MEP on Transnational Trade on the cyberspace emphasised that the online circumstances for smaller and medium-size enterprises are especially great since they receive more chances to get across conventional commercial systems instead than they had even a last decade. Enterprises are effective to set up their cyberspace sale targets easy, speedily and at little cost, thereby achieving a higher level of fight.
If your business is operating in a niche, with a relatively smaller domestic market, looking to another nations can help you expand your audience with surprisingly little effort. And if your commodities or services attract to a bigger audience, moving into international marketplaces makes you the probability to touch a wide number of potency recent customers. It could really boost your receipts and earnings.
However, in a larger market there will be more competition from local companies. It can be heavy to match up on cost or fulfilment when shipping internationally, so you might let to modify your proposition to have an impact.
It's not only for manufacturer but for consumers are also receiving benefits by online trading,. Since they enjoy a very bigger choice between commodities and services, competitive pricing, lower living costs and a better excellent of life, they as well don't demand to go out to browse all products and services even from wholesale providers. They are today better able to compare productions and services since they take access more selective information on online trading.
Are Traditional Banks Better Than Internet Banking?
With the ubiquitous internet as it is today, you have the convenience of doing a variety of banking transactions online from the comfort of your home, in your office or while traveling. This extraordinary technological creation has so made life easier for a lot of people including professionals, the business community, housewives and scholars even for banking purposes. Notwithstanding, this new communication phenomenon people have not stopped patronizing the usual off line banks . The orthodox banks will always be there for those people who still choose to interact in an real bank in where they see staff and call them by name.
The banks that have gone online and their offline counterpart have their advantages and disadvantages. It's up to you to consider and decide whether to transact your financial affairs with either an online bank or an off line one . What really count s is that you should know your financial demands so as to be able to actually be on the look out for the latest tendency in the banking industry and understudy them to see how it favors you. Even if you are loyal to your usual offline bank, you may also have the need to sometimes use the online banking service for an urgent transaction or when you are where the bank is not near by.
Accomplished banks continue to use pen and paper for organizing financial transactions off line while in their online virtual offices computer and internet and keyboard are the instruments for banking transactions . The fact is that a lot of people are now online with financial products that are internet-only services meant to compete with the normal off line banks . Though these conservative banks cater mainly to their old customers, people who should know are advising them to also open online offices to serve the internet-savvy young people and by so doing attract more customers
Security and person to person interactions are the main reasons people maintain the use of traditional banks. A lot of people feel that human contact is a necessity in any bank transaction; they want to hand their hard earned cash over to real teller.
Banking online is quite the same as when you do the same thing in an offline bank. The significant dissimilarity is that your computer replaces paper or phone for accessing your account information for payments and statements reconciliations . You don't really have to worry about going to your local bank branch when you can do all the things necessary to effect a bank transaction in the comfort of your home with a desktop computer or laptop and internet connection.
A principal advantage that internet banking offers people who go for online banking is cost effectiveness. Certain banks are known to charge their customers lower fees if the bank online banking services.
The banks that have gone online and their offline counterpart have their advantages and disadvantages. It's up to you to consider and decide whether to transact your financial affairs with either an online bank or an off line one . What really count s is that you should know your financial demands so as to be able to actually be on the look out for the latest tendency in the banking industry and understudy them to see how it favors you. Even if you are loyal to your usual offline bank, you may also have the need to sometimes use the online banking service for an urgent transaction or when you are where the bank is not near by.
Accomplished banks continue to use pen and paper for organizing financial transactions off line while in their online virtual offices computer and internet and keyboard are the instruments for banking transactions . The fact is that a lot of people are now online with financial products that are internet-only services meant to compete with the normal off line banks . Though these conservative banks cater mainly to their old customers, people who should know are advising them to also open online offices to serve the internet-savvy young people and by so doing attract more customers
Security and person to person interactions are the main reasons people maintain the use of traditional banks. A lot of people feel that human contact is a necessity in any bank transaction; they want to hand their hard earned cash over to real teller.
Banking online is quite the same as when you do the same thing in an offline bank. The significant dissimilarity is that your computer replaces paper or phone for accessing your account information for payments and statements reconciliations . You don't really have to worry about going to your local bank branch when you can do all the things necessary to effect a bank transaction in the comfort of your home with a desktop computer or laptop and internet connection.
A principal advantage that internet banking offers people who go for online banking is cost effectiveness. Certain banks are known to charge their customers lower fees if the bank online banking services.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Money Management Principles
Trade With Sufficient Captial
One of the worst blunders that forex traders can make is attempting to trade without sufficient capital.
The trader with limited capital not only will be a worried trader, always looking to minimize losses beyond the point of realistic trading, but he will also frequently be taken out of the trading game before he can realize any sense of success trading the method(s) or patterns.
Exercise Discipline
Discipline is probably one of the most overused words in forex trading education. However, despite the clich¨¦, discipline continues to be the most important behaviour one can master to become a profitable trader. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan.
It¡¯s the ability to give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the market simply because you are uncomfortable with risk. Discipline is also the ability to continue to trade the methods and patterns even after you¡¯ve suffered losses. Do your best to cultivate the degree of discipline required to be a world-class trader.
Employ Risk-to-Reward Ratios
The following shows you possible risk-to reward ratios, and the win ratios required to break even in a trading system.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (in pips)and Win Ratio Required to Break Even(%)
40/20 (2 to 1) = 67%, 40/40 (1 to1) = 50%, 40/60 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
40/80 (1 to 2) = 33.5%,
60/20 (3 to 1) = 75%,
60/60 (1 to 1) = 50%,
60 /90 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
60/120 (1 to 2) = 33.5%
Important Note
Never risk more pips on a trade then you plan to make. It doesn¡¯t make sense to risk 100 pips in order to make only 10. Why? See below example.
Profit taking level (pips): 10
Stop used or pips at risk: 100
You win 10 times which makes 100 winning pips. You ONLY lose once and have to give back all profits!!!
This type of trading makes no sense and you will lose on the long term guaranteed!
One of the worst blunders that forex traders can make is attempting to trade without sufficient capital.
The trader with limited capital not only will be a worried trader, always looking to minimize losses beyond the point of realistic trading, but he will also frequently be taken out of the trading game before he can realize any sense of success trading the method(s) or patterns.
Exercise Discipline
Discipline is probably one of the most overused words in forex trading education. However, despite the clich¨¦, discipline continues to be the most important behaviour one can master to become a profitable trader. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan.
It¡¯s the ability to give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the market simply because you are uncomfortable with risk. Discipline is also the ability to continue to trade the methods and patterns even after you¡¯ve suffered losses. Do your best to cultivate the degree of discipline required to be a world-class trader.
Employ Risk-to-Reward Ratios
The following shows you possible risk-to reward ratios, and the win ratios required to break even in a trading system.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (in pips)and Win Ratio Required to Break Even(%)
40/20 (2 to 1) = 67%, 40/40 (1 to1) = 50%, 40/60 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
40/80 (1 to 2) = 33.5%,
60/20 (3 to 1) = 75%,
60/60 (1 to 1) = 50%,
60 /90 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
60/120 (1 to 2) = 33.5%
Important Note
Never risk more pips on a trade then you plan to make. It doesn¡¯t make sense to risk 100 pips in order to make only 10. Why? See below example.
Profit taking level (pips): 10
Stop used or pips at risk: 100
You win 10 times which makes 100 winning pips. You ONLY lose once and have to give back all profits!!!
This type of trading makes no sense and you will lose on the long term guaranteed!
Stock Market Money Management Skills
Let's start by saying: You can't be afraid to take a loss. The investors that are the most successful in the stock market are the people who are willing to lose money.
Having a strategy and/or a specific philosophy is an excellent starting point to investing but it won't mean a thing if you can't manage your money. As I have said a million times: without cash, you can't invest.
Most investors spend far too much time trying to figure out the exact pivot point or perfect entry strategy and too little time on money management. The most important aspect to investing is cutting your losses, 90% of the battle is won by protecting your capital, regardless of the strategy.
Most successful money managers only make money 50-55% of time. This means that successful individual investors are going to be wrong about half the time. Since this is the case, you better be ready to accept your losses and cut them while they are small. By cutting losses quickly and allowing your winners to ride the up-trend, you will consistently finish the year with black ink.
Here are some methods that can help you with money management:
Set a predetermined stop loss (you must know where to cut the loss before it happens ¡°this will help control emotions when the time comes)." A 7-10% stop loss insurance policy is best. Tighten the stop loss range in down markets and loosen the range in strong bull markets.
Establish smaller positions if your account has had a recent losing streak (the losses may be telling you important information such as a critical turning point, it may be time to sell and get out).
If you think you are wrong or if the market is moving against you, cut your position in half ¡°this is the best insurance policy on Wall Street."
If you cut your position in half two times, you will be left with only 25% of the original position ¡°the remaining stock is no longer a big deal as your risk is very low."
If you sell out of a trade prematurely based on a minor correction, you can always reestablish the position again.
Initial position sizing plays a big part in money management ¡°don't take on too big of a position relative to your portfolio size. Novice investors should never use their entire account on one trade no matter how small the account
Know when you would like to get out of a position after a considerable profit has been made. Signs of topping could be a climax run, a spinning top or higher highs on lower volume.
Finally, cut any trade that doesn't act the way you originally analyzed it to act.
With these guidelines, you will be well on your way to solid money management skills that will help you profit in Wall Street year in and year out. Always remember, you are going to take-on losing trades at least half of the time. This is a tough concept to accept for most novice investors but it a fact. If you don't cut losses, you won't be investing for very long as you will run out of cash and the desire to continue to invest.
Having a strategy and/or a specific philosophy is an excellent starting point to investing but it won't mean a thing if you can't manage your money. As I have said a million times: without cash, you can't invest.
Most investors spend far too much time trying to figure out the exact pivot point or perfect entry strategy and too little time on money management. The most important aspect to investing is cutting your losses, 90% of the battle is won by protecting your capital, regardless of the strategy.
Most successful money managers only make money 50-55% of time. This means that successful individual investors are going to be wrong about half the time. Since this is the case, you better be ready to accept your losses and cut them while they are small. By cutting losses quickly and allowing your winners to ride the up-trend, you will consistently finish the year with black ink.
Here are some methods that can help you with money management:
Set a predetermined stop loss (you must know where to cut the loss before it happens ¡°this will help control emotions when the time comes)." A 7-10% stop loss insurance policy is best. Tighten the stop loss range in down markets and loosen the range in strong bull markets.
Establish smaller positions if your account has had a recent losing streak (the losses may be telling you important information such as a critical turning point, it may be time to sell and get out).
If you think you are wrong or if the market is moving against you, cut your position in half ¡°this is the best insurance policy on Wall Street."
If you cut your position in half two times, you will be left with only 25% of the original position ¡°the remaining stock is no longer a big deal as your risk is very low."
If you sell out of a trade prematurely based on a minor correction, you can always reestablish the position again.
Initial position sizing plays a big part in money management ¡°don't take on too big of a position relative to your portfolio size. Novice investors should never use their entire account on one trade no matter how small the account
Know when you would like to get out of a position after a considerable profit has been made. Signs of topping could be a climax run, a spinning top or higher highs on lower volume.
Finally, cut any trade that doesn't act the way you originally analyzed it to act.
With these guidelines, you will be well on your way to solid money management skills that will help you profit in Wall Street year in and year out. Always remember, you are going to take-on losing trades at least half of the time. This is a tough concept to accept for most novice investors but it a fact. If you don't cut losses, you won't be investing for very long as you will run out of cash and the desire to continue to invest.
Fundamental Analysis On Forex Trading
It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.
When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.
Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.
Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.
Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.
Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.
However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.
When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.
Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.
Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.
Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.
Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.
However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.
How far can the dollar go down?
How far can the dollar go down?
Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.
Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?
Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?
Gold is cheap
Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500 without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).
What to do?
An argument of this nature should end in a that's next or that you should do. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be in the right place at the right time or at least not in the wrong place at the wrong time for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.
Property surrounding small country towns has been doubling in 1 year! Farmland has increased by as much as 500% in some areas over the last few years. There are plentiful opportunities in this market, but they may not be the traditional opportunities that investors are accustomed to.
It's 2008
There is a new market thinking, accept it or not. We don't live in the 1970's, it's not 1970 it's 2008. In 1970 Russia was communist, now there are more billionaires in Moscow than in New York. In 1970 Oil had not yet peaked, there was no Internet, financial markets were not deregulated to the extent that they are now, there were no derivatives, no climate change, and no Oil hungry China. In 1970 Europe was scarcely organized, only 25 years of reconstruction post ww2, and there was no Euro.
Thinking Different
Therefore, the only way to survive in the New Investment Paradigm is to be nimble and stay ahead of the information curve. In any field, applied intelligence can earn a solid position and even great profits. Safe havens are no longer safe as they were, the bond market is getting destroyed by inflation, TIPS (inflation protected bonds) are trading negative for the first time ever, meaning you are betting inflation will be worse than the small loss you will take on the bonds.
A trader named Paulson made a record Wall Street profit on single trade, shorting SubPrime loans. Gold investors are happily sitting on 300%+ returns since 2002. Those holding US Dollar short positions have doubled their money in several years. CTA programs have achieved 70% - 150% in 2007, trading currencies, commodities, and futures. Anyone long Oil or Gasoline futures in the past months would have been very profitable.
Clearly, there are hundreds of opportunities but no clear magic bullet solution that could be recommended, compared to 5 years ago when a US Dollar short or Long Gold portfolio could have been safely recommended. It is for this reason Elite E Services is launching a Global Opportunities Hedge Fund, which should be ready by late spring. If you are trading for yourself, take quick profits and don't hold any positions for the long term, and seek new opportunities. Keep in mind the opportunities may be biased toward the Short side than the long side, as DOW and NASDAQ components will be hit by a sinking dollar, sinking US Economy, and credit problems.
Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.
Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?
Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?
Gold is cheap
Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500 without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).
What to do?
An argument of this nature should end in a that's next or that you should do. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be in the right place at the right time or at least not in the wrong place at the wrong time for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.
Property surrounding small country towns has been doubling in 1 year! Farmland has increased by as much as 500% in some areas over the last few years. There are plentiful opportunities in this market, but they may not be the traditional opportunities that investors are accustomed to.
It's 2008
There is a new market thinking, accept it or not. We don't live in the 1970's, it's not 1970 it's 2008. In 1970 Russia was communist, now there are more billionaires in Moscow than in New York. In 1970 Oil had not yet peaked, there was no Internet, financial markets were not deregulated to the extent that they are now, there were no derivatives, no climate change, and no Oil hungry China. In 1970 Europe was scarcely organized, only 25 years of reconstruction post ww2, and there was no Euro.
Thinking Different
Therefore, the only way to survive in the New Investment Paradigm is to be nimble and stay ahead of the information curve. In any field, applied intelligence can earn a solid position and even great profits. Safe havens are no longer safe as they were, the bond market is getting destroyed by inflation, TIPS (inflation protected bonds) are trading negative for the first time ever, meaning you are betting inflation will be worse than the small loss you will take on the bonds.
A trader named Paulson made a record Wall Street profit on single trade, shorting SubPrime loans. Gold investors are happily sitting on 300%+ returns since 2002. Those holding US Dollar short positions have doubled their money in several years. CTA programs have achieved 70% - 150% in 2007, trading currencies, commodities, and futures. Anyone long Oil or Gasoline futures in the past months would have been very profitable.
Clearly, there are hundreds of opportunities but no clear magic bullet solution that could be recommended, compared to 5 years ago when a US Dollar short or Long Gold portfolio could have been safely recommended. It is for this reason Elite E Services is launching a Global Opportunities Hedge Fund, which should be ready by late spring. If you are trading for yourself, take quick profits and don't hold any positions for the long term, and seek new opportunities. Keep in mind the opportunities may be biased toward the Short side than the long side, as DOW and NASDAQ components will be hit by a sinking dollar, sinking US Economy, and credit problems.
Forex Options Tips - Tips to Increase Profits and Decrease Risk!
If you have never considered sing Forex Options then you should. They can simply overcome the major problem most Forex traders face - getting stopped out by short term volatility...
A Forex Option gives you unlimited profit potential and your risk is simply the price you paid for the option. This means, prices can go anywhere in the short term but so long as the option trades above the price you bought it at, in rising market or below in a falling market you make money.
How many times have you been stopped out by short term volatility, only see the price go right back the way you thought they would, make thousands of dollars and your not in the trade?
It happens to most traders!
Picking the direction of the long term trend is easy; balancing the risk reward in the short term is the hard part. You want to be in the trend - but you don't want to have to worry about short term risk. Staying power is the key advantage Forex options give you.
Options are a great tool to limit short term risk - but you need to use them correctly and here are two simple tips.
1. Always Buy at or in the Money Options.
Never buy way out of the money options, as these are long shot bets.
Sure the profit potential is bigger, if the strike price is hit but the key word here is "if"; out of the money options, are the equivalent of outsider bets and the outsider doesn't normally win!
2. Get Time on your Side
The closer the option is to expiry, the more time decay plays a role in option value. Never buy options with less than 3 months to expiry, so you have plenty of time on your side.
Options the Ultimate Risk Control Tool!
Forex options are a powerful tool any Forex trader should look at to deal with volatility and gain staying power. The problem most of the time is not deciding where a currency will go long term but where to place your stop and options take care of this problem, by giving you staying power.
If you don't know much about options, then make them part of your essential Forex education and add a valuable tool, to your armoury for bigger Forex profits.
A Forex Option gives you unlimited profit potential and your risk is simply the price you paid for the option. This means, prices can go anywhere in the short term but so long as the option trades above the price you bought it at, in rising market or below in a falling market you make money.
How many times have you been stopped out by short term volatility, only see the price go right back the way you thought they would, make thousands of dollars and your not in the trade?
It happens to most traders!
Picking the direction of the long term trend is easy; balancing the risk reward in the short term is the hard part. You want to be in the trend - but you don't want to have to worry about short term risk. Staying power is the key advantage Forex options give you.
Options are a great tool to limit short term risk - but you need to use them correctly and here are two simple tips.
1. Always Buy at or in the Money Options.
Never buy way out of the money options, as these are long shot bets.
Sure the profit potential is bigger, if the strike price is hit but the key word here is "if"; out of the money options, are the equivalent of outsider bets and the outsider doesn't normally win!
2. Get Time on your Side
The closer the option is to expiry, the more time decay plays a role in option value. Never buy options with less than 3 months to expiry, so you have plenty of time on your side.
Options the Ultimate Risk Control Tool!
Forex options are a powerful tool any Forex trader should look at to deal with volatility and gain staying power. The problem most of the time is not deciding where a currency will go long term but where to place your stop and options take care of this problem, by giving you staying power.
If you don't know much about options, then make them part of your essential Forex education and add a valuable tool, to your armoury for bigger Forex profits.
Forex Money Management - The Foundation For Huge Gains and Forex Trading Success
Labels:
Finance,
Financial Tips,
Forex,
Forex updates,
Oil Trading,
Trading,
World Stocks
0
comments
Most traders use solid Forex trading systems but they fail to poor money management and really poor money management is the reason most traders lose lets take a look at in more detail...
If you watch any good football team it will have a strong defence it keeps the team in the game, until the offence gets an opportunity. If a team falls to far behind it doesn't matter how good the attack is, the team will lose and it's the same in Forex trading you need to defend what you have and keep your losses small until you get good high odds opportunities.
In Forex trading lose 50% of your account and you have to make a 100% to get back to profit and that's hard!
In Forex trading picking trend direction is easy but getting in at the best risk to reward is hard. So what tips can I give you?
The first is to cut leverage sure most brokers give you 200:1 but 10:1 is really plenty for most traders. Leverage up to far and you will have to have your stop to tight and will get taken out by the market noise so cut back leverage.
Next don't put stops to close!
This isn't being rash but you need to have stops outside of random volatility, so you don't get clipped out. Even more important is never jack your stop up to far to lock in profit - leave it back and accept short term dips in equity, to make a longer term gain.
Most traders either use to much leverage or think by having stops close, they reduce their risk but they don't, all they do is increase the probability of being stopped out to 100%. Many traders calculate their risk reward as - their target minus their stop but this is just an opinion! It does not take into account the probability if the trade.
To Win You Need to Deal with Volatility
When I ask traders I teach, do they know anything about standard deviation of price?
They look at me with a blank look yet; this should be essential knowledge for any Forex trader's essential education - why?
Because it gives you the volatility of the market and allows you to place stops more effectively. If you don't know what it is, make it part of your essential Forex education and look up our other articles.
Here are some simple money management tips.
- Always assume the worst when you enter a trade and things can only get better, there is no sure fire winner!
- Never place stops inside random volatility
- Never leverage up to hilt, keep leverage low
- Never trail a stop to quickly give the market room to breathe
- Never trade in random time periods so no day trading or scalping!
- Be patient and wait for high odds trades
- Don't place mental stops, they affect discipline and you may let a loss run
- Risk reward is NOT Your target minus your stop! Don't fall into this common trap
- If in doubt get out - any doubts liquidate
In forex trading your only trading the odds, you need to preserve your equity above all else fall too far behind and you will never recover. Forex money management is the key to this and always keep in mind the old gamblers saying:
To bet and win you need to be at the table but you can't bet if you lose your chips!
Obvious really - but very true. The foundation of your success is sound Forex money management SO pay attention and make it part of your essential Forex education or lose.
If you watch any good football team it will have a strong defence it keeps the team in the game, until the offence gets an opportunity. If a team falls to far behind it doesn't matter how good the attack is, the team will lose and it's the same in Forex trading you need to defend what you have and keep your losses small until you get good high odds opportunities.
In Forex trading lose 50% of your account and you have to make a 100% to get back to profit and that's hard!
In Forex trading picking trend direction is easy but getting in at the best risk to reward is hard. So what tips can I give you?
The first is to cut leverage sure most brokers give you 200:1 but 10:1 is really plenty for most traders. Leverage up to far and you will have to have your stop to tight and will get taken out by the market noise so cut back leverage.
Next don't put stops to close!
This isn't being rash but you need to have stops outside of random volatility, so you don't get clipped out. Even more important is never jack your stop up to far to lock in profit - leave it back and accept short term dips in equity, to make a longer term gain.
Most traders either use to much leverage or think by having stops close, they reduce their risk but they don't, all they do is increase the probability of being stopped out to 100%. Many traders calculate their risk reward as - their target minus their stop but this is just an opinion! It does not take into account the probability if the trade.
To Win You Need to Deal with Volatility
When I ask traders I teach, do they know anything about standard deviation of price?
They look at me with a blank look yet; this should be essential knowledge for any Forex trader's essential education - why?
Because it gives you the volatility of the market and allows you to place stops more effectively. If you don't know what it is, make it part of your essential Forex education and look up our other articles.
Here are some simple money management tips.
- Always assume the worst when you enter a trade and things can only get better, there is no sure fire winner!
- Never place stops inside random volatility
- Never leverage up to hilt, keep leverage low
- Never trail a stop to quickly give the market room to breathe
- Never trade in random time periods so no day trading or scalping!
- Be patient and wait for high odds trades
- Don't place mental stops, they affect discipline and you may let a loss run
- Risk reward is NOT Your target minus your stop! Don't fall into this common trap
- If in doubt get out - any doubts liquidate
In forex trading your only trading the odds, you need to preserve your equity above all else fall too far behind and you will never recover. Forex money management is the key to this and always keep in mind the old gamblers saying:
To bet and win you need to be at the table but you can't bet if you lose your chips!
Obvious really - but very true. The foundation of your success is sound Forex money management SO pay attention and make it part of your essential Forex education or lose.
Dealing With Online Forex Brokers
Online forex brokers can turn out to be your competitive advantage in the line of foreign currency trading. They are deemed as a valuable asset especially if you wanted to enter into a high stakes game of currency trading. Because of these, forex brokers are highly esteemed in the market and there are some misconceptions that have also been formed around them. With the industry booming, it's about time that some of those misconceptions be straightened out once and for all.
The Truth behind Trading with Brokers
Most of the time, we feel way too assured for our own good when we get the services of online forex brokers. We tend to feel that we are in the hands of experts so all we have to do is sit back and relax as they do all the needed work for us. So when things don't turn out quite the way we expect them to, we tend to put all the blame on the brokers. Sometimes we even feel cheated that we are paying for nothing. But the truth is that we are also to blame for the losses we incur.
All forex brokers know that in the trading arena, losses amounting to 95% are but a common thing. This is why most of them choose to abide by the rules of day trading. Exchanging currencies are very dynamic and at the end of the day, all your broker ever really does is to provide you with leads. The hand that still makes all the vital decisions is yours and not your broker.
Brokers and Offered Leverage
One of the selling points used by most forex brokers is the leverage they offer. Leverage is the profits that you can be promised by relying on just one forex broker alone. Some even go as far as giving 300:1 and unfortunately some people take the bait. In truth, 20:1 is the maximum that brokers can handle and assure you with. It's easy to believe that they can do it with a spectrum of trading methods but at the end of the day, keep in mind that these brokers are human too. They can only do so much to cover that much and also consider the fact that you may not be their only client.
Listening to Your Forex Broker
One of the great offers that a forex broker can perhaps give you as an extra benefit is their word of advice. You would especially appreciate this if you are new in the game. But the thing is, you should not swallow every piece of advice that your forex broker will give you. Online forex brokers are hired to help you find opportunities but they should never be the ones made to handle the course of your business. At the end of the day, you should still listen to your own gut feel and instincts.
Also, you should never buy most of the things that your forex broker tells you out of the context of work. As much as possible, keep your relationship at a professional level.
The Truth behind Trading with Brokers
Most of the time, we feel way too assured for our own good when we get the services of online forex brokers. We tend to feel that we are in the hands of experts so all we have to do is sit back and relax as they do all the needed work for us. So when things don't turn out quite the way we expect them to, we tend to put all the blame on the brokers. Sometimes we even feel cheated that we are paying for nothing. But the truth is that we are also to blame for the losses we incur.
All forex brokers know that in the trading arena, losses amounting to 95% are but a common thing. This is why most of them choose to abide by the rules of day trading. Exchanging currencies are very dynamic and at the end of the day, all your broker ever really does is to provide you with leads. The hand that still makes all the vital decisions is yours and not your broker.
Brokers and Offered Leverage
One of the selling points used by most forex brokers is the leverage they offer. Leverage is the profits that you can be promised by relying on just one forex broker alone. Some even go as far as giving 300:1 and unfortunately some people take the bait. In truth, 20:1 is the maximum that brokers can handle and assure you with. It's easy to believe that they can do it with a spectrum of trading methods but at the end of the day, keep in mind that these brokers are human too. They can only do so much to cover that much and also consider the fact that you may not be their only client.
Listening to Your Forex Broker
One of the great offers that a forex broker can perhaps give you as an extra benefit is their word of advice. You would especially appreciate this if you are new in the game. But the thing is, you should not swallow every piece of advice that your forex broker will give you. Online forex brokers are hired to help you find opportunities but they should never be the ones made to handle the course of your business. At the end of the day, you should still listen to your own gut feel and instincts.
Also, you should never buy most of the things that your forex broker tells you out of the context of work. As much as possible, keep your relationship at a professional level.
Forex trading basics
Forex Market Basics
The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex, FX market, "Cash" Forex or Spot Forex market ) is the largest financial market in the world, with more than $1.5 trillion changing hands every day — 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.
What to trade in Forex Market?
In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair as an instrument, which can be bought or sold.
Understanding Forex quote
* Base currency: The first currency in the pair.
* Counter Currency: The second currency in the pair. Also known as the terms currency.
The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes. This includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/CAD 1.1302 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 1.1302 Canadian dollar.
BID and ASK Prices
When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ’bid’ and ’ask’. The ’bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ’ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).
Commission-free, but with spreads
Most Forex brokers offer commission-free Forex trading. Spread - The difference between the bid and ask price of a currency. Normally 3-5 pips on the Majors.
Rollover - What happens to my open positions at the end of the trading day?
Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Most brokers will automatically roll over your open positions, allowing you to hold a position for an indefinite period of time.
The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex, FX market, "Cash" Forex or Spot Forex market ) is the largest financial market in the world, with more than $1.5 trillion changing hands every day — 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.
What to trade in Forex Market?
In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair as an instrument, which can be bought or sold.
Understanding Forex quote
* Base currency: The first currency in the pair.
* Counter Currency: The second currency in the pair. Also known as the terms currency.
The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes. This includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/CAD 1.1302 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 1.1302 Canadian dollar.
BID and ASK Prices
When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ’bid’ and ’ask’. The ’bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ’ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).
Commission-free, but with spreads
Most Forex brokers offer commission-free Forex trading. Spread - The difference between the bid and ask price of a currency. Normally 3-5 pips on the Majors.
Rollover - What happens to my open positions at the end of the trading day?
Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Most brokers will automatically roll over your open positions, allowing you to hold a position for an indefinite period of time.
Fibonacci Trading Techniques
Introduction to Fibonacci trading techniques.
First, a few words about Fibonacci himself…
Leonardo Pisano (nickname Fibonacci) was a mathematician, born in 1170, in Pisa (now Italy). His father was Guilielmo, of the Bonacci family. His father was a diplomat, as a result Fibonacci was educated in North Africa, where he learned "accounting" and "mathematics".
Fibonacci also contributed to the science of numbers, and introduced the "Fibonacci sequence"
The Fibonacci sequence is the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, introduced in his work "Liber abaci" in a problem involving the growth of a population of rabbits.
Aside from this sequence of number where every next number is the sum of the proceeding two, 0, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (2+1), 5 (3+2), 8 (5+3), 13 (8+5), etc.
There are the "Fibonacci ratios".. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios.. The important ones are .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00 ..
It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe (see the reference section below). Fibonacci numbers appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course snails… But of what use is all that to the lowly trader?
What really interests you, the application of Fibonacci techniques in the trading environment..
Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price scale, and also to the time scale of charts. I study the price scale. My focus here will be on the price scale for now, perhaps in the future I’ll add some time-scale studies.
Prices never move in a straight line. Look at any chart, you will see many wiggles, as price advances and retraces.. Stocks, Futures, Forex, all instruments which are liquid, will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and reasonably close! This happens often enough that profitable trades can result. I will show you some examples below.
I used Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss levels. My complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, in-person seminars, and via my real-time on-line chat facility. For more details, see the this web page
The application of Fibonacci to trading can be very complex, and take much time and experience to perfect. Many traders enjoy making the process as difficult and as complex as they can tolerate.. I do the opposite, I try to simplify, try to bring clarity.
Fibonacci example - Microsoft Weekly chart.
This lesson demonstrates a very basic way to use Fibonacci levels. You just read about Fibonacci ratios. We will use just one of those ratios for now, the .382 Fibonacci ratio. In this chart MSFT made a high of (approximately) $59.97 in December of 1999. After that, it moved down to make a low of $30.19 in May of 2000.
The down move was $29.78 (59.97-30.19), quite a substantial amount.
Projecting from that low in May, and using a Fibonacci ratio, we can calculate 29.78*.382=$11.37 . So 38.2% of 29.78 is 11.37 . If MSFT were to rally 38.2% of the down-move it would reach $41.57 (11.37+30.20). I’m using rounded numbers in my calculations, the chart above calculates it to be $41.564, we don’t need that degree of accuracy!
Several weeks later, MSFT rallied and resisted right near that .382 Fibonacci level !!
So we were able to predict a future probable turning point (after the low of May 2000), using the Fibonacci ratio of .382!! If only it were always so easy.
The steps involved are:
1. Calculate the total value of a significant price-move (high to low, or vice-versa).
2. Calculate a Fibonacci retracement (in this case .382) of the prior move.
3. Look for price to confirm, by resisting (or support in an up-move) near that predicted retracement area.
Fibonacci example - Microsoft Daily chart.
This chart shows how a different Fibonacci level (61.8%) predicted resistance and a market turn.
Notice how the market behaved at the .382 level (30.80 area). Initially the market spiked through, then fell back to that level (late October). We cannot expect a chart to retrace at every Fib level. We can expect some support/resistance as buyers/sellers enter the market at these levels, but we can’t always predict whether the market will actually turn at any particular level. Fibonacci techniques are used to alert you to a possible trade, if that price level does cause support or resistance. These techniques are not used as a trigger for entry. Other indicators are used in conjunction with Fibonacci studies to provide higher-probability entries.
As mentioned before, there are several Fib levels, .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and 1.00 .. So there are several places to look for a market turn. They can be calculated in advance, but trading blindly at a fib level can be dangerous, because you never know for certain (in advance) whether the market will turn at any particular Fib level. I use other indicators to help overcome that problem, click here to learn how to determine which Fib ratio is likely to be strong enough to turn the market.
Important notes from this lesson:
1. There are several Fib levels.
2. It takes some skill to determine which Fib level is likely to cause the market to turn.
3. There are some techniques to help you determine where a market is more likely to turn.
4. Do not blindly anticipate a market turn at a Fib level.
More Fibonacci examples.
QQQ Weekly chart with a deep retracement to .618 and a weak attempt to rally after that. However, consider the daily chart and intraday traders. they would have enjoyed the rally from $75 to $100, after going long from a support level that could have been predicted in March!
QQQ daily chart. Multiple Fib levels timing the market perfectly in 3 consecutive waves up!
Intraday chart, QQQ 30-minute. Notice the two market Fib retracements (there are others in this chart too).. The rally from 29.26 stopped at 31.10, then it supported **twice** at 30.39, for two good scalps. The next highlighted Fib support is at a retracement of .618 from the move up 30.47 to 32.49 .. Both of these support levels were predictable before the market supported there.. Hint:--- See how the rally continued after the shallow retracement to 30.39 ... See how the rally after the deeper retracement to .618 near 31.25 was a weaker rally.. This is common, a deeper retracement often foretells a weaker rally... See the next lesson in the table of contents for more on these advanced Fibonacci trading principles.
Another intraday chart, S&P 5-minute.. The first Fib retracement is on a bearish move, an opportunity to short. The second is bullish, with a long entry near 999.25 .. Note that popular charting software will calculate Fibonacci to rediculous precision, we don’t need anything closer than one tick! Actually, you should allow some room don’t expect precision every time. Allow the trade some room to develop, or you will be stopped out too often.
More Advanced - Microsoft Daily chart.
By now you’re probably quite interested, perhaps applying all those Fibonacci ratios to many charts.. You should experiment with your own charts. As long as the instrument traded has a lot of liquidity (not a penny stock for example), you should start to see Fib support and resistance at work. You will start to notice that Fibonacci levels "work" sometimes and not others. Sometimes the trades are not profitable, or are less profitable than others. You need to develop the skills required to select better trades.
In this mini-lesson I want to show you how to evaluate price action based on which Fib levels it responds to, and how the market behaves immediately preceding the Fib support/resistance.
The chart below actually has many Fibonacci levels "performing well", providing support or resistance to the market. I want you to focus on the two that I have identified, for the purposes of this lesson.
The first up-move that I have identified topped out at $26.90, and then retraced 61.8% before supporting at that Fib level. There was a pause at the .382 level, but it was not sufficient to hold the market. Now look at the rally from the support level near .618, it rallied but did not exceed the prior high of 26.90 … As a general rule, a retracement to .618 or below indicates that the preceding up-move is losing steam. A shallow retracement which supports at .382 is more likely to rally beyond the prior high than one which has a deep retracement beyond .50 all the way to .618 ..
The impressive thrust from 22.55 up to 26.90 was negated by a quick move back to .618 at about 24.20, so a trader should not be too optimistic about a continuation of the initial up-thrust.
Similarly, the move up in June, from 23.50 to almost 26.50 would also not inspire much optimism for a huge rally above the high of 26.50 … In general a shallow support at .382 would indicate a probable rally beyond the prior high. However, if the up-move preceding the retracement was sluggish rather than thrusting, you also should temper your enthusiasm.
If the second rally which only retraced to .382 had the thrust of the first rally, it would be a more attractive trade!
These are not firm rules, instead they are used as a guide, to help you filter for better trades. Every Fib level is not equal, some are more attractive than others.
Important notes from this lesson:
1. Not all Fib levels are alike.
2. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.
3. Price action just before a Fib retracement can tell you something about the future.
4. Which Fib level causes the end of a retracement also can give a hint to future price action.
5. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.
First, a few words about Fibonacci himself…
Leonardo Pisano (nickname Fibonacci) was a mathematician, born in 1170, in Pisa (now Italy). His father was Guilielmo, of the Bonacci family. His father was a diplomat, as a result Fibonacci was educated in North Africa, where he learned "accounting" and "mathematics".
Fibonacci also contributed to the science of numbers, and introduced the "Fibonacci sequence"
The Fibonacci sequence is the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, introduced in his work "Liber abaci" in a problem involving the growth of a population of rabbits.
Aside from this sequence of number where every next number is the sum of the proceeding two, 0, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (2+1), 5 (3+2), 8 (5+3), 13 (8+5), etc.
There are the "Fibonacci ratios".. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios.. The important ones are .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00 ..
It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe (see the reference section below). Fibonacci numbers appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course snails… But of what use is all that to the lowly trader?
What really interests you, the application of Fibonacci techniques in the trading environment..
Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price scale, and also to the time scale of charts. I study the price scale. My focus here will be on the price scale for now, perhaps in the future I’ll add some time-scale studies.
Prices never move in a straight line. Look at any chart, you will see many wiggles, as price advances and retraces.. Stocks, Futures, Forex, all instruments which are liquid, will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and reasonably close! This happens often enough that profitable trades can result. I will show you some examples below.
I used Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss levels. My complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, in-person seminars, and via my real-time on-line chat facility. For more details, see the this web page
The application of Fibonacci to trading can be very complex, and take much time and experience to perfect. Many traders enjoy making the process as difficult and as complex as they can tolerate.. I do the opposite, I try to simplify, try to bring clarity.
Fibonacci example - Microsoft Weekly chart.
This lesson demonstrates a very basic way to use Fibonacci levels. You just read about Fibonacci ratios. We will use just one of those ratios for now, the .382 Fibonacci ratio. In this chart MSFT made a high of (approximately) $59.97 in December of 1999. After that, it moved down to make a low of $30.19 in May of 2000.
The down move was $29.78 (59.97-30.19), quite a substantial amount.
Projecting from that low in May, and using a Fibonacci ratio, we can calculate 29.78*.382=$11.37 . So 38.2% of 29.78 is 11.37 . If MSFT were to rally 38.2% of the down-move it would reach $41.57 (11.37+30.20). I’m using rounded numbers in my calculations, the chart above calculates it to be $41.564, we don’t need that degree of accuracy!
Several weeks later, MSFT rallied and resisted right near that .382 Fibonacci level !!
So we were able to predict a future probable turning point (after the low of May 2000), using the Fibonacci ratio of .382!! If only it were always so easy.
The steps involved are:
1. Calculate the total value of a significant price-move (high to low, or vice-versa).
2. Calculate a Fibonacci retracement (in this case .382) of the prior move.
3. Look for price to confirm, by resisting (or support in an up-move) near that predicted retracement area.
Fibonacci example - Microsoft Daily chart.
This chart shows how a different Fibonacci level (61.8%) predicted resistance and a market turn.
Notice how the market behaved at the .382 level (30.80 area). Initially the market spiked through, then fell back to that level (late October). We cannot expect a chart to retrace at every Fib level. We can expect some support/resistance as buyers/sellers enter the market at these levels, but we can’t always predict whether the market will actually turn at any particular level. Fibonacci techniques are used to alert you to a possible trade, if that price level does cause support or resistance. These techniques are not used as a trigger for entry. Other indicators are used in conjunction with Fibonacci studies to provide higher-probability entries.
As mentioned before, there are several Fib levels, .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and 1.00 .. So there are several places to look for a market turn. They can be calculated in advance, but trading blindly at a fib level can be dangerous, because you never know for certain (in advance) whether the market will turn at any particular Fib level. I use other indicators to help overcome that problem, click here to learn how to determine which Fib ratio is likely to be strong enough to turn the market.
Important notes from this lesson:
1. There are several Fib levels.
2. It takes some skill to determine which Fib level is likely to cause the market to turn.
3. There are some techniques to help you determine where a market is more likely to turn.
4. Do not blindly anticipate a market turn at a Fib level.
More Fibonacci examples.
QQQ Weekly chart with a deep retracement to .618 and a weak attempt to rally after that. However, consider the daily chart and intraday traders. they would have enjoyed the rally from $75 to $100, after going long from a support level that could have been predicted in March!
QQQ daily chart. Multiple Fib levels timing the market perfectly in 3 consecutive waves up!
Intraday chart, QQQ 30-minute. Notice the two market Fib retracements (there are others in this chart too).. The rally from 29.26 stopped at 31.10, then it supported **twice** at 30.39, for two good scalps. The next highlighted Fib support is at a retracement of .618 from the move up 30.47 to 32.49 .. Both of these support levels were predictable before the market supported there.. Hint:--- See how the rally continued after the shallow retracement to 30.39 ... See how the rally after the deeper retracement to .618 near 31.25 was a weaker rally.. This is common, a deeper retracement often foretells a weaker rally... See the next lesson in the table of contents for more on these advanced Fibonacci trading principles.
Another intraday chart, S&P 5-minute.. The first Fib retracement is on a bearish move, an opportunity to short. The second is bullish, with a long entry near 999.25 .. Note that popular charting software will calculate Fibonacci to rediculous precision, we don’t need anything closer than one tick! Actually, you should allow some room don’t expect precision every time. Allow the trade some room to develop, or you will be stopped out too often.
More Advanced - Microsoft Daily chart.
By now you’re probably quite interested, perhaps applying all those Fibonacci ratios to many charts.. You should experiment with your own charts. As long as the instrument traded has a lot of liquidity (not a penny stock for example), you should start to see Fib support and resistance at work. You will start to notice that Fibonacci levels "work" sometimes and not others. Sometimes the trades are not profitable, or are less profitable than others. You need to develop the skills required to select better trades.
In this mini-lesson I want to show you how to evaluate price action based on which Fib levels it responds to, and how the market behaves immediately preceding the Fib support/resistance.
The chart below actually has many Fibonacci levels "performing well", providing support or resistance to the market. I want you to focus on the two that I have identified, for the purposes of this lesson.
The first up-move that I have identified topped out at $26.90, and then retraced 61.8% before supporting at that Fib level. There was a pause at the .382 level, but it was not sufficient to hold the market. Now look at the rally from the support level near .618, it rallied but did not exceed the prior high of 26.90 … As a general rule, a retracement to .618 or below indicates that the preceding up-move is losing steam. A shallow retracement which supports at .382 is more likely to rally beyond the prior high than one which has a deep retracement beyond .50 all the way to .618 ..
The impressive thrust from 22.55 up to 26.90 was negated by a quick move back to .618 at about 24.20, so a trader should not be too optimistic about a continuation of the initial up-thrust.
Similarly, the move up in June, from 23.50 to almost 26.50 would also not inspire much optimism for a huge rally above the high of 26.50 … In general a shallow support at .382 would indicate a probable rally beyond the prior high. However, if the up-move preceding the retracement was sluggish rather than thrusting, you also should temper your enthusiasm.
If the second rally which only retraced to .382 had the thrust of the first rally, it would be a more attractive trade!
These are not firm rules, instead they are used as a guide, to help you filter for better trades. Every Fib level is not equal, some are more attractive than others.
Important notes from this lesson:
1. Not all Fib levels are alike.
2. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.
3. Price action just before a Fib retracement can tell you something about the future.
4. Which Fib level causes the end of a retracement also can give a hint to future price action.
5. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.
Futures Spread Trading
How professional traders optimize profits
Futures spread trading is probably the most profitable, yet safest way to trade futures. Almost every professional trader uses spreads to optimize his profits. Trading spreads offers many advantages which make it the perfect trading instrument, especially for beginners and traders with small accounts (less than $10,000).
The following example of a Soybean-Spread shows the advantages of futures spread trading:
Example: Long May Soybeans (SK3) and Short November Soybeans (SX3)
Four Advantages of Futures Spread Trading
Advantage 1: Easy to trade
Do you see how nicely this spread starts trending in mid February? Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, whether you use chart formations or indicators, the existence of a trend is obvious. (If you are looking for a concept of how to identify a trend, we strongly recommend visiting http://www.tradingeducators.com/?source=Tradejuicetrading_philosophy.htm). Spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. They trend without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers.
Advantage 2: Low Margin requirements
Many spreads have reduced margin requirements, which means that you can afford to put on more positions. While the margin on an outright futures position in corn is $540, a spread trade in corn requires only $135 — 25% as much. That’s a great advantage for traders with a small account. With a $10,000 trading account risking 8% of your account, you can enter 6 corn spreads, instead of only 1-2 outright corn futures trade. How’s that for leverage?
Advantage 3: Higher return on margin
Each point in the spread carries the same value ($50) as each point in the outright futures ($50). That means that on a 3 point favorable move in corn futures or a 3 point favorable move in the spread, you would earn $150. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary:
Corn futures - $150/$540 = 27.8% return
Corn spread - $150/$135 = 111% return
And keep in mind that you can trade 6 times as many spread contracts as you can outright futures contracts. In our example you would achieve a 24 times higher return on you margin.
Advantage 4: Low time requirements
You don’t have to watch a spread all day long. You do not need real-time data. The most effective way to trade spreads is using end-of-day data. Therefore, spread trading is the best way to trade if you do not want to watch or cannot watch your computer all day long (i.e. because you have a daytime job). And you can save all the money you would have had to spend for real-time data systems (up to $600 per month).
So where is the catch?
If futures spread trading is so fantastic, why does it seems that hardly anybody trades spreads? Well, it is not true that hardly anybody trades spreads: the professional traders do, every day. But either by accident or design, the whole truth of spread trading has been hidden from the public over the years.
The purpose of this website is to inform you about futures spread trading. In the following we will answer the four frequently asked questions:
* What is a spread?
* Why trade spreads?
* What can you expect when trading spreads?
What Is a Spread?
A spread is defined as the sale of one or more futures contracts and the purchase of one or more offsetting futures contracts. You can turn that around to state that a spread is the purchase of one or more futures contracts and the sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts. A spread is also created when a trader owns (is long) the physical vehicle and offsets by selling (going short) futures. Furthermore, a spread is defined as the purchase and sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts normally recognized as a spread by the fact that the two sides of the spread are actually related in some way. This explicitly excludes those exotic spreads put forth by some vendors, which are nothing more than computer generated coincidences which are not in any way related. Such exotic spreads as Long Bond futures and Short Bean Oil futures may show up as reliable computer generated spreads, but bean oil and bonds are not really related. Such spreads fall into the same category as believing the annual performance of the U.S. stock market is somehow related to the outcome of the Super Bowl sporting event. In any case, for tactical reasons in carrying out a particular strategy, you want to end up with:
* simultaneously long futures of one kind in one month, and short futures of the same kind in another month. (Intramarket Calendar Spread)
* simultaneously long futures of one kind, and short futures of another kind. (Intermarket Spread)
* long futures at one exchange, and short a related futures at another exchange. (Inter-exchange Spread)
* long an underlying physical commodity, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long an underlying equity position, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long financial instruments, and short financial futures. (Hedge)
* long a single stock futures and short a sector index.
The primary ways in which this can be accomplished are:
* Via an Intramarket spread.
* Via an Intermarket spread.
* Via an Inter-exchange spread.
* By ownership of the underlying and offsetting with a futures contract.
Intramarket Spreads
Officially, Intramarket spreads are created only as calendar spreads. You are long and short futures in the same market, but in different months. An example of an Intramarket spread is that you are Long July Corn and simultaneously Short December Corn.
Intermarket Spreads
An Intermarket spread can be accomplished by going long futures in one market, and short futures of the same month in another market. For example: Short May Wheat and Long May Soybeans.
Intermarket spreads can become calendar spreads by using long and short futures in different markets and in different months.
Inter-Exchange Spreads
A less commonly known method of creating spreads is via the use of contracts in similar markets, but on different exchanges. These spreads can be calendar spreads using different months, or they can be spreads in which the same month is used. Although the markets are similar, because the contracts occur on different exchanges they are able to be spread. An example of an Inter-exchange calendar spread would be simultaneously Long July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat, and Short an equal amount of May Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBOT) Wheat. An example of using the same month might be Long December CBOT Wheat and Short December KCBOT Wheat.
Why Spreads?
The rationale behind spread trading is one of the best-kept secrets of the insiders of the futures markets. While spreading is commonly done by the market "insiders," much effort is made to conceal this technique and all of its benefits from "outsiders," you and me. After all, why would the insiders want to give away their edge? By keeping us from knowing about spreading, they retain a distinct advantage.
Spreading is one of the most conservative forms of trading. It is much safer than the trading of outright (naked) futures contracts. Let’s take a quick look at some of the benefits of using spreads:
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads require considerably less margin, typically around 25% - 75% of the margin needed for outright futures positions.
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads offer a far greater return on investment than is possible with outright futures positions. Why? Because you are posting less margin for the same amount of possible return.
* Spreads, in general, trend more often than do outright futures.
* Spreads often trend when outright futures are flat.
* Spreads can be filtered by virtue of seasonality, backwardation, and carrying charge differentials, in addition to any other filters you might be using in your trading.
* Spreads can be used to create partial futures positions. In fact, virtually anything that can be done with options on futures can be accomplished via spread trading.
* Spreads allow you to take less risk than is available with outright futures positions. The amount of risk between two Intramarket futures positions is usually less than the risk in an outright futures position. The risk between owning the underlying and holding a futures contract involves the least risk of all. Spreads make it possible to hedge any position you might have in the market. Whether you are hedging between physical ownership and futures, or between two futures positions, the risk is lower than that of outright futures. In that sense, every spread is a hedge.
* Spread order entry enables you to enter or exit a trade using an actual spread order, or by independently entering each side of the spread (legging in/out).
* Spreads are one of the few ways to obtain decent fills by legging in/out during the market Closing.
* Live data is not needed for spread trading, saving you $$ in exchange fees.
* You will not be the victim of stop running when using Intramarket spreads.
What Can You Expect?
Here is an example of what you can expect from Intramarket spread trading. We think you may be pleasantly surprised!!
This spread was entered not only on the basis of seasonality, but also by virtue of the formation known as a Ross hook (Rh). The spread moved from -69.0 to -7.5 = $3,075 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $608, thus the return on margin is more than 500%.
Here is an example of an Intermarket spread. Look at the the following chart: Would you want to have been long live cattle from December until February?
But, what about a spread between Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle?
The spread moved from -10,200 to -7,200 = $3,000 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $540. The return on margin is more than 550%.
Lastly, we show you another intermarket spread. This one was made between Euro and British Pound. Although you might have made money on a Euro trade, you would have suffered from serious whipsaw during the entire length of the trade.
What about a spread between the Euro and the British Pound?
You didn’t have to be in this spread for very long in order to take some fat profits: During February the spread moved from $32,500 to $36,187.50 = $3,687.50 per contract.
How do I start trading spreads?
We can barely scratch the surface of what is available in the almost lost art of spread trading. There are times when seasonal spreads, coupled with chart formations, make a lot of sense. Backwardation in any market often provides an excellent signal for entry into a spread.
Futures spread trading is probably the most profitable, yet safest way to trade futures. Almost every professional trader uses spreads to optimize his profits. Trading spreads offers many advantages which make it the perfect trading instrument, especially for beginners and traders with small accounts (less than $10,000).
The following example of a Soybean-Spread shows the advantages of futures spread trading:
Example: Long May Soybeans (SK3) and Short November Soybeans (SX3)
Four Advantages of Futures Spread Trading
Advantage 1: Easy to trade
Do you see how nicely this spread starts trending in mid February? Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, whether you use chart formations or indicators, the existence of a trend is obvious. (If you are looking for a concept of how to identify a trend, we strongly recommend visiting http://www.tradingeducators.com/?source=Tradejuicetrading_philosophy.htm). Spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. They trend without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers.
Advantage 2: Low Margin requirements
Many spreads have reduced margin requirements, which means that you can afford to put on more positions. While the margin on an outright futures position in corn is $540, a spread trade in corn requires only $135 — 25% as much. That’s a great advantage for traders with a small account. With a $10,000 trading account risking 8% of your account, you can enter 6 corn spreads, instead of only 1-2 outright corn futures trade. How’s that for leverage?
Advantage 3: Higher return on margin
Each point in the spread carries the same value ($50) as each point in the outright futures ($50). That means that on a 3 point favorable move in corn futures or a 3 point favorable move in the spread, you would earn $150. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary:
Corn futures - $150/$540 = 27.8% return
Corn spread - $150/$135 = 111% return
And keep in mind that you can trade 6 times as many spread contracts as you can outright futures contracts. In our example you would achieve a 24 times higher return on you margin.
Advantage 4: Low time requirements
You don’t have to watch a spread all day long. You do not need real-time data. The most effective way to trade spreads is using end-of-day data. Therefore, spread trading is the best way to trade if you do not want to watch or cannot watch your computer all day long (i.e. because you have a daytime job). And you can save all the money you would have had to spend for real-time data systems (up to $600 per month).
So where is the catch?
If futures spread trading is so fantastic, why does it seems that hardly anybody trades spreads? Well, it is not true that hardly anybody trades spreads: the professional traders do, every day. But either by accident or design, the whole truth of spread trading has been hidden from the public over the years.
The purpose of this website is to inform you about futures spread trading. In the following we will answer the four frequently asked questions:
* What is a spread?
* Why trade spreads?
* What can you expect when trading spreads?
What Is a Spread?
A spread is defined as the sale of one or more futures contracts and the purchase of one or more offsetting futures contracts. You can turn that around to state that a spread is the purchase of one or more futures contracts and the sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts. A spread is also created when a trader owns (is long) the physical vehicle and offsets by selling (going short) futures. Furthermore, a spread is defined as the purchase and sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts normally recognized as a spread by the fact that the two sides of the spread are actually related in some way. This explicitly excludes those exotic spreads put forth by some vendors, which are nothing more than computer generated coincidences which are not in any way related. Such exotic spreads as Long Bond futures and Short Bean Oil futures may show up as reliable computer generated spreads, but bean oil and bonds are not really related. Such spreads fall into the same category as believing the annual performance of the U.S. stock market is somehow related to the outcome of the Super Bowl sporting event. In any case, for tactical reasons in carrying out a particular strategy, you want to end up with:
* simultaneously long futures of one kind in one month, and short futures of the same kind in another month. (Intramarket Calendar Spread)
* simultaneously long futures of one kind, and short futures of another kind. (Intermarket Spread)
* long futures at one exchange, and short a related futures at another exchange. (Inter-exchange Spread)
* long an underlying physical commodity, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long an underlying equity position, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
* long financial instruments, and short financial futures. (Hedge)
* long a single stock futures and short a sector index.
The primary ways in which this can be accomplished are:
* Via an Intramarket spread.
* Via an Intermarket spread.
* Via an Inter-exchange spread.
* By ownership of the underlying and offsetting with a futures contract.
Intramarket Spreads
Officially, Intramarket spreads are created only as calendar spreads. You are long and short futures in the same market, but in different months. An example of an Intramarket spread is that you are Long July Corn and simultaneously Short December Corn.
Intermarket Spreads
An Intermarket spread can be accomplished by going long futures in one market, and short futures of the same month in another market. For example: Short May Wheat and Long May Soybeans.
Intermarket spreads can become calendar spreads by using long and short futures in different markets and in different months.
Inter-Exchange Spreads
A less commonly known method of creating spreads is via the use of contracts in similar markets, but on different exchanges. These spreads can be calendar spreads using different months, or they can be spreads in which the same month is used. Although the markets are similar, because the contracts occur on different exchanges they are able to be spread. An example of an Inter-exchange calendar spread would be simultaneously Long July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat, and Short an equal amount of May Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBOT) Wheat. An example of using the same month might be Long December CBOT Wheat and Short December KCBOT Wheat.
Why Spreads?
The rationale behind spread trading is one of the best-kept secrets of the insiders of the futures markets. While spreading is commonly done by the market "insiders," much effort is made to conceal this technique and all of its benefits from "outsiders," you and me. After all, why would the insiders want to give away their edge? By keeping us from knowing about spreading, they retain a distinct advantage.
Spreading is one of the most conservative forms of trading. It is much safer than the trading of outright (naked) futures contracts. Let’s take a quick look at some of the benefits of using spreads:
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads require considerably less margin, typically around 25% - 75% of the margin needed for outright futures positions.
* Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads offer a far greater return on investment than is possible with outright futures positions. Why? Because you are posting less margin for the same amount of possible return.
* Spreads, in general, trend more often than do outright futures.
* Spreads often trend when outright futures are flat.
* Spreads can be filtered by virtue of seasonality, backwardation, and carrying charge differentials, in addition to any other filters you might be using in your trading.
* Spreads can be used to create partial futures positions. In fact, virtually anything that can be done with options on futures can be accomplished via spread trading.
* Spreads allow you to take less risk than is available with outright futures positions. The amount of risk between two Intramarket futures positions is usually less than the risk in an outright futures position. The risk between owning the underlying and holding a futures contract involves the least risk of all. Spreads make it possible to hedge any position you might have in the market. Whether you are hedging between physical ownership and futures, or between two futures positions, the risk is lower than that of outright futures. In that sense, every spread is a hedge.
* Spread order entry enables you to enter or exit a trade using an actual spread order, or by independently entering each side of the spread (legging in/out).
* Spreads are one of the few ways to obtain decent fills by legging in/out during the market Closing.
* Live data is not needed for spread trading, saving you $$ in exchange fees.
* You will not be the victim of stop running when using Intramarket spreads.
What Can You Expect?
Here is an example of what you can expect from Intramarket spread trading. We think you may be pleasantly surprised!!
This spread was entered not only on the basis of seasonality, but also by virtue of the formation known as a Ross hook (Rh). The spread moved from -69.0 to -7.5 = $3,075 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $608, thus the return on margin is more than 500%.
Here is an example of an Intermarket spread. Look at the the following chart: Would you want to have been long live cattle from December until February?
But, what about a spread between Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle?
The spread moved from -10,200 to -7,200 = $3,000 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $540. The return on margin is more than 550%.
Lastly, we show you another intermarket spread. This one was made between Euro and British Pound. Although you might have made money on a Euro trade, you would have suffered from serious whipsaw during the entire length of the trade.
What about a spread between the Euro and the British Pound?
You didn’t have to be in this spread for very long in order to take some fat profits: During February the spread moved from $32,500 to $36,187.50 = $3,687.50 per contract.
How do I start trading spreads?
We can barely scratch the surface of what is available in the almost lost art of spread trading. There are times when seasonal spreads, coupled with chart formations, make a lot of sense. Backwardation in any market often provides an excellent signal for entry into a spread.
An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900
From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980’s and 1990’s for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.
Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance
Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance
The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark
et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.
Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.
Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).
Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.
Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.
Day Trading Indicators and Indicator Trading
Did You Begin Day Trading As An Indicator Only Trader?
Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.
Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.
So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.
My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories ƒ؛
Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression
Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.
This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?
Now what - you never learn how to trade.
I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.
Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?
Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.
Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.
Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.
When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:
2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading
6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions
3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living
Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader
I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.
Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.
Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.
So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.
My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories ƒ؛
Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression
Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.
This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?
Now what - you never learn how to trade.
I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.
Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?
Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.
Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.
Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.
When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:
2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading
6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions
3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living
Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader
I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.
Looking for Cup and Handle Chart Patterns before Buying a Stock
Cup and Handle
Favorable Chart Patterns to Look for before Buying a Stock
One of the biggest factors an investor should consider before buying a stock is what type of chart pattern the stock is forming. A company may have great fundamentals but if it has an unfavorable chart pattern then it may not be a good company to invest in. One of the basic chart patterns to look for before investing in a stock is called a "Cup and Handle" pattern. Typically a "Cup and Handle" looks similar to a coffee cup if you were holding the cup in your right hand.
Generally I look for stocks that take 3 Months or more to form a Cup and then develop a Handle for at least 2 Weeks. Some examples are shown below.
AMHC formed a Cup for 14 Months and then developed a Handle for 8 Weeks (point A). AMHC broke out of the Handle in December of 2001 and then preceded to rise from $8 to $37 a share over the next 12 months for a gain of over 400%.
EASI developed a 2 year Cup and then formed a 10 week Handle (point B) before breaking out in August of 2000. EASI then preceded to rise from $12 to $38 a share over the next 12 months for a gain of over 200%.
FRNT developed a 12 Month Cup and then formed an 8 Week Handle (point C) before breaking out in November of 2000. FRNT then preceded to rise from $12 to $26 a share for a gain of over 100% over the next 5 Months.
Finally TARO developed a Cup for 10 Months and then formed a 6 Week Handle (point D) before breaking out in October of 2001. TARO then rose from $17 to $50 a share for a gain of 190% over the next 6 Months.
By focusing on companies with good fundamentals that are breaking out of a favorable chart pattern such as a "Cup and Handle" will allow you to find winning stocks even in a Bear Market environment. The purpose of our site is to help focus investors on those stocks that have good fundamentals which are forming favorable chart patterns such as the "Cup and Handle".
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
