Using Weekly And Monthly Charts To Invest In The Stock Market

A mistake many investors make is that the longest time frame they will look at when it comes to technical analysis is the daily chart. However this chart doesn't always tell the whole story and in a lot of cases it's a lot more profitable to invest in shares based on what the weekly or monthly charts are saying. One of the best set of indicators you can use are the exponential moving averages. I personally like to plot the 5, 20, 50 and 200 period EMAs on my charts because they are extremely useful indicators. They work well on the daily charts but they are even more dependable on the weekly or monthly charts. The key is to look for important EMA crossovers for a change in trend. After you get one of these crossovers you will often see the price continue to move in this direction for several weeks or months before it reverses and crosses in the opposite direction. In the meantime you can bank some significant profits. You can use the EMA (20) crossing the EMA (50) as a good signal but I personally prefer using the EMA (5) crossing the EMA (20) as my preferred signal. As I say this works well on the daily chart alone but when you increase the time frame, you get far bigger price moves. In fact sometimes you can catch a trend that lasts several years and creates substantial profits. You can also use the downwards crossover as either a sell signal or as an opportunity to go short of a stock. For instance if you look at the monthly chart of any of the banks, let's take Royal Bank of Scotland as an example, you will see that the EMA (5) crossed downwards through the EMA (20) in July 2007 and still hasn't crossed back upwards. In this time the share price has fallen from around 600p to just 20p. So obviously a very profitable long-term short position and it's the same with many other companies, not just the banks. If you look at the daily charts, however, you will see that there are a lot more crossovers using the same period EMAs so you don't always capture these big gains using this time frame. If the weekly or monthly chart is too long a time frame to use, then you should use them to identify the longer term trend if nothing else. For instance if the weekly or monthly chart is trending upwards, then you should look for buying opportunities on the daily chart. The point is that you should always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts because they can provide you with some invaluable information (and trading opportunities). The trends on these longer term time frames can last for months, and even years in some cases.

Good News For Income Investors

Looking for good news in today's markets is like searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Needless to say, practically all investment grade equities and nearly all closed end funds that specialize in providing regular recurring monthly income have been reduced in market value by this prolonged correction. The quake has spread in all directions from its financial epicenter, and the mounting doom and gloom has taken its toll on even the most rational investment decision makers. Try to keep in mind that the purpose of income investing is the income that your portfolio produces not an increase in the securities' market values---

So here's the good news (and for anyone with a 40% or higher income asset allocation, or an income portfolio being used for living expenses), it really is very good news. Base income levels, from the beginning of the stock market correction in June '07 until mid-July '08, have barely changed at all. In fact, they have probably risen in properly asset allocated portfolios. I have examined the regular recurring monthly income distributed by 56 taxable income CEFs and 61 tax-free income CEFs, and the conclusions are pretty remarkable.

In spite of the fact that the vast majority of my favorite monthly income producers are lower in market value than I would like, the amount of income they are distributing to shareholders has not moved lower meaningfully--- even though the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by approximately 60% during the past twelve months. Here are the numbers: (1) 48% of the taxable-income CEFs are distributing precisely the same amount per share as they did a year ago. Fourteen issues have increased their payouts and fifteen have reduced them.

The net result is a decrease of just fourteen cents (2.5% of the total monthly payout). The average current yield on the portfolio, as of mid July '07, is 9.86% without considering any capital gains distributions. Additionally, the group is selling at market prices that reflect an average discount of nearly 11% from NAV. Is that special or what? The bonds, preferred stocks, government securities are priced 11% below their current market values.

(2) The numbers are similar with regard to the 61 tax-free income CEFs: 46% have not altered their payout over the past twelve months; eighteen have reduced their payout slightly, and 15 have increased the monthly dole. The net difference for the group over the past year is less than one cent, or a percentage change of two-tenths of one percent. Remarkable. This group is selling at an average discount from NAV of 9.1% and has a current tax-free yield of 5.51%.

(3) Of 117 individual issues, about half have produced stable income. The others have accounted for a total payout reduction of less than 15 cents--- a measly 1.7%. Why is this amount of little consequence? Two reasons really.

First of all, a properly asset-allocated income portfolio does not disburse all of the base income it receives, so there is income available to reinvest in more shares of income producing securities. This process assures a growing cash flow to calm your fear of rising prices. The other reason is a bit more hypothetical. The Fed has lowered rates significantly, a process that normally produces higher prices for income securities. Eventually, those lower interest rates (even if global pressures convince politicians to take back some of the reductions) should produce higher prices (i.e., profit taking opportunities) in these securities.

Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills. The purpose of capital gains is to produce proportionately more base income generators.

The purpose of this email is simply to bring some needed sunlight into an investment environment that is far gloomier than I think it needs to be. If you want the details, you'll have to request them personally.

The Seven Most Traded Currencies in FOREX

Currencies are traded in dollar amounts called “lots”. One lot is equal to $1,000, which controls $100,000 in currency. This is what is known as the "margin". You can control $100,000 worth of currency for only 1,000 dollars. This is what is called “High Leverage”.

Currencies are always traded in pairs in the FOREX. The pairs have a unique notation that expresses what currencies are being traded. The symbol for a currency pair will always be in the form ABC/DEF. ABC/DEF is not a real currency pair, it is an example of a symbol for a currency pair. In this example ABC is the symbol for one countries currency and DEF is the symbol for another countries currency.

Here are some of the common symbols used in the Forex:

USD - The US Dollar EUR - The currency of the European Union "EURO" GBP - The British Pound JPN - The Japanese Yen CHF - The Swiss Franc AUD - The Australian Dollar CAD - The Canadian Dollar

There are symbols for other currencies as well, but these are the most commonly traded ones.

A currency can never be traded by itself. So you can not ever trade a EUR by itself. You always need to compare one currency with another currency to make a trade possible.

Some of the common PAIRS are:

EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar "Euro"

USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen "Dollar Yen"

GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar "Cable"

USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar "Dollar Canada"

AUD/USD Australian Dollar/US Dollar "Aussie Dollar"

USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc "Swissy"

EUR/JPY Euro / Japanese Yen "Euro Yen"

The listed currency pairs above look like a fraction. The numerator (top of the fraction or "left" of the / however you want to SEE it) is called the base currency. The denominator (bottom of the fraction or "right" of the /however you want to SEE it) is called the counter currency. When you place an order to buy the EUR/USD, for instance, you are actually buying the EUR and selling the USD. If you were to sell the pair, you would be selling the EUR and buying the USD. So if you buy or sell a currency PAIR, you are buying/selling the base currency. You are always doing the opposite of what you did with to base currency with the counter currency.

If this seems confusing then you’re in luck. You can always get by with just thinking of the entire pair as one item. Then you are just buying or selling that one item. Thinking like this will still enable you to place trades. You only need to be aware of the base/counter concept for Fundamental Analysis issues.

So why is it important to know about the base/counter currency? The base/counter currency concept illustrates what is actually taking place in a Forex transaction. Some of you reading this, know that short-selling was restricted in the stock market *(Short-selling is where you sell a stock/currency/option/commodity first and then try to buy it back at a lower price later). But in the FOREX you are always buying one currency (base) and selling another (counter). If you sell the pair you are simply flipping which one you buy and which one you sell. The transaction is essentially the same. This allows you to short-sell with no restrictions.

You want to be able to short-sell with no restrictions so you can make money when the market drops as well as when it rises. The problem with traditional stock market trading is that the market has to go up for you to make money. With FOREX trading you can make money in all directions.

Amazon's Best Investment Book Reviews: Have You Been Brainwashed?

Most popular investment books are published for the already rich and famous, by an industry that has become just too good at the business of selling books. Rarely will a publisher take a chance with the work of an unknown author. Certainly, it's a no brainer to sell a Jim Cramer, Peter Lynch, Robert Kiyosaki, or Maria Bartiromo effort while a uniquely new approach to solving the puzzles of Wall Street, presented by an unknown writer or commentator, requires some major financial risk.

Big publishers want to sell already big names; discovering new ones is not in their wheelhouse. Are they responsible for the problems in the financial markets? Of course not, but they do have a perverse, if indirect, impact. By constantly publishing the same Wall Street friendly message, they contribute to the brainwashing.

Without a wider distribution of new ideas based on old wisdom, Wall Street as usual remains Wall Street as usual and the average investor remains uninformed and ill advised about the dangers of the financial markets. The biggest investment mistake generators are cleverly ignored by most of the books I've read about investing--- even compounded.

The new generation focus on calendar year instead of market cycle performance; the worship of portfolio market value alone, for all securities, even those purchased solely for income production; the use of gimmicks and products instead of securities for portfolio development; the acceptance of speculations as acceptable, "alternative" investments.

Appreciating the differences between investing and speculating, and learning what to expect from your securities in cyclical markets are things that investors must learn about. Have you been brainwashed? These 15 Amazon members are learning to think outside the Wall Street box, without any help (or investment) from publishers:

1) Super Investing Book: I've read a bunch of books on investing and money management, and this is the best, BY FAR!!!!! It's so good, and refreshing, that I've read it twice. (R. Q. A., Bryan, Texas)

2) Back to Basics: This is an eye-opening and intelligent book, which at once offers an analysis of the investment industry and a practical guide for non-professional investors--- a clear set of economic principles mixed with clear commonsensical advice. The author--- describes how to benefit from the ups and downs. Great book. (Professor P. W., Jerusalem, Israel)

3) The Best Investment Book I Have Ever Read: For skittish investors such as me, [the] unique Working Capital Model reduces the emotional factor by taking the emphasis off market value and focusing on growth of working capital. I implemented and followed the trading strategy myself. You would do well to buy this book and read it two or three times. It will save you [from] a lifetime of mistakes that come from following conventional wisdom. (D. J. F., Peoria, IL)

4) Easy to Understand, Even for Non-Investors: This book seems to be much easier to understand than the stock market trading systems advertised on TV. (P. L., Manchester, CT)

5) Happy User: You can take this system to heart--- and to the bank. It works for me. (L. J., Phoenix, AZ)

6) Unique Advice that Stands Out From the Crowd: This is one of two [books] that stand out. Besides being written in an entertaining and irreverent style, it has immensely practical advice. Focus on making money on the market's inherent volatility vs. trying to guess what's next. Saves a lot of time and appears to work. (C. M. Rakes, Annandale, VA)

7) An Enlightened Self-Managed Investor: Not only did I identify many many mistakes that I had made thru the years, but the logical approach outlined [in the book] has to make sense to anybody who has tried to get meaningful portfolio guidelines for future investments tailored to individual needs. Great Book! (A. C., West Palm Beach, FL)

8) Right on the Money: I didn't want to put the book down until I was through. [The] trading strategy is refreshing information that should make a lot of people a lot of money with less risk. (D. M., SC)

9) Investing Made Successful: I heard [the Author] on a talk-radio program and was intrigued by the premise of the book. After reading it, I'm convinced. I'm migrating from mutual funds to individual, high quality equities. [The book] was a slap in the face to make me stop my destructive investing habits. (G. P., Colorado Springs, CO)

10) What a Great Read: This is really an incredible book--- [it] has incorporated very creative insight with some highly original thinking to produce one of the best "investing manuals" ever written. I wholeheartedly endorse this book! ("Jointhefreedom", NM)

11) Courage To Go Against the Pack: The [book] is written in an exciting, enthusiastic, fast moving, style that reads like a novel. Should I ever venture into the stock market, it will be with this book. (S. M., Virginia Beach, VA)

12) L-O-N-G Overdue Investment Strategy Advice: I've long been skeptical of the generic advice handed down to me by advisors over the past--- I don't know any wealthy people who do this. Well now I have a frame of reference for my doubts about the system and a simple plan to take control of my investments. (B. S., Vancouver, BC, Canada)

13) A Must Read To Save Your Money From the Sharks: Written in a conversational style with plenty of humor, this book gives you the questions and answers you need to keep and increase monies that are being put away for retirement. I have purchased three books already and am purchasing five more to give to friends and relatives--- (R. M., San Jose, CA)

14) Brainwashing of the American Investor: Finally the truth! What an eye-opener to see how the markets, and the people behind the markets, have manipulated the average investor over the years. I highly recommend [this] book for your next financial read. (A. J. L., Ft. Pierce, FL)

15) Profit Like a Trader; Sleep Like an Investor: The technique or strategy presented is almost a "why didn't I think of that?" The idea is to run your portfolio the same way you would run a business---not a get-rich-quick kind of plan. You just focus on the essential measures of quality. The key is to maintain your plan during the slow times and reign in your greed during the boom times. (P. G., Moon Township, PA)

Today's publishing industry has a no-risk attitude, and those that are brave enough to deal with new authors are intimidated by the full-return guarantee demands of the bookstores. Stuck in the middle with no choice, most new authors must turn to self-publishing.

The reviews above describe a book that Wall Street wants to keep in the closet, an educational and strategic breakthrough that would have allowed most investors to avoid the bubbles and derivatives that caused our current financial woes. There are probably others--- below the 200-level in all Amazon's best categories.

Forex Money Management part 2

Money management is a critical point that shows difference between winners and losers. It was proved that if 100 traders start trading using a system with 60% winning odds, only 5 traders will be in profit at the end of the year. In spite of the 60% winning odds 95% of traders will lose because of their poor money management. Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Most of traders don't understand how important it is.

It's important to understand the concept of money management and understand the difference between it and trading decisions. Money management represents the amount of money you are going to put on one trade and the risk your going to accept for this trade.

There are different money management strategies. They all aim at preserving your balance from high risk exposure.

First of all, you should understand the following term Core equity
Core equity = Starting balance - Amount in open positions.

If you have a balance of 10,000$ and you enter a trade with 1,000$ then your core equity is 9,000$. If you enter another 1,000$ trade,your core equity will be 8,000$

It's important to understand what's meant by core equity since your money management will depend on this equity.

We will explain here one model of money management that has proved high anual return and limited risk. The standard account that we will be discussing is 100,000$ account with 20:1 leverage . Anyway,you can adapt this strategy to fit smaller or bigger trading accounts.

Money management strategy

Your risk per a trade should never exceed 3% per trade. It's better to adjust your risk to 1% or 2%
We prefer a risk of 1% but if you are confident in your trading system then you can lever your risk up to 3%

1% risk of a 100,000$ account = 1,000$

You should adjust your stop loss so that you never lose more than 1,000$ per a single trade.

If you are a short term trader and you place your stop loss 50 pips below/above your entry point .
50 pips = 1,000$
1 pips = 20$

The size of your trade should be adjusted so that you risk 20$/pip. With 20:1 leverage,your trade size will be 200,000$

If the trade is stopped, you will lose 1,000$ which is 1% of your balance.

This trade will require 10,000$ = 10% of your balance.

If you are a long term trader and you place your stop loss 200 pips below/above your entry point.
200 pips = 1,000$
1 pip = 5$

The size of your trade should be adjusted so that you risk 5$/pip. With 20:1 leverage, your trade size will be 50,000$

If the trade is stopped, you will lose 1,000$ which is 1% of your balance.

This trade will require 2,500$ = 2.5% of your balance.

This's just an example. Your trading balance and leverage provided by your broker may differ from this formula. The most important is to stick to the 1% risk rule. Never risk too much in one trade. It's a fatal mistake when a trader lose 2 or 3 trades in a row, then he will be confident that his next trade will be winning and he may add more money to this trade. This's how you can blow up your account in a short time! A disciplined trader should never let his emotions and greed control his decisions.

Diversification

Trading one currnecy pair will generate few entry signals. It would be better to diversify your trades between several currencies. If you have 100,000$ balance and you have open position with 10,000$ then your core equity is 90,000$. If you want to enter a second position then you should calculate 1% risk of your core equity not of your starting balance!. Itmeans that the second trade risk should never be more than 900$. If you want to enter a 3rd position and your core equity is 80,000$ then the risk per 3rd trade should not exceed 800$

It's important that you diversify your prders between currencies that have low correlation.

For example, If you have long EUR/USD then you shouldn't long GBP/USD since they have high correlation. If you have long EUR/USD and GBP/USD positions and risking 3% per trade then your risk is 6% since the trades will tend to end in same direction.

If you want to trade both EUR/USD and GBP/USD and your standard position size from your money management is 10,000$ (1% risk rule) then you can trade 5,000$ EUR/USD and 5,000$ GBP/USD. In this way,you will be risking 0.5% on each position.

The Martingale and anti-martingale strategy

It's very important to understand these 2 strategies.

-Martingale rule = increasing your risk when losing !

This's a startegy adopted by gamblers which claims that you should increase the size of you trades when losing. It's applied in gambling in the following way Bet 10$,if you lose bet 20$,if you lose bet 40$,if you lose bet 80$,if you lose bet 160$..etc

This strategy assumes that after 4 or 5 losing trades,your chance to win is bigger so you should add more money to recover your loss! The truth is that the odds are same in spite of your previous loss! If you have 5 losses in a row ,still your odds for 6th bet 50:50! The same fatal mistake can be made by some novice traders. For example,if a trader started with a abalance of 10,000$ and after 4 losing trades (each is 1,000$) his balance is 6000$. The trader will think that he has higher chances of winning the 5th trade then he will increase ths size of his position 4 times to recover his loss. If he lose,his balance will be 2,000$!! He will never recover from 2,000$ to his startiing balance 10,000$. A disciplined trader should never use such gambling method unless he wants to lose his money in a short time.

-Anti-martingale rule = increase your risk when winning& decrease your risk when losing

It means that the trader should adjust the size of his positions according to his new gains or losses.
Example: Trader A starts with a balance of 10,000$. His standard trade size is 1,000$
After 6 months,his balance is 15,000$. He should adjust his trade size to 1,500$

Trader B starts with 10,000$.His standard trade size is 1,000$
After 6 months his balance is 8,000$. He should adjust his trade size to 800$

High return strategy

This strategy is for traders looking for higher return and still preserving their starting balance.

According to your money management rules,you should be risking 1% of you balance. If you start with 10,000$ and your trade size is 1,000$ (Risk 1%) After 1 year,your balance is 15,000$. Now you have your initial balance + 5,000$ profit. You can increase your potential profit by risking more from this profit while restricting your initial balance risk to 1%. For example,you can calcualte your trade in the following pattern:

1% risk 10,000$ (initial balance)+ 5% of 5,000$ (profit)

In this way,you will have more potential for higher returns and on the same time you are still risking 1% of your initial deposit.

Money Management Principles

Trade With Sufficient Captial

One of the worst blunders that forex traders can make is attempting to trade without sufficient capital.

The trader with limited capital not only will be a worried trader, always looking to minimize losses beyond the point of realistic trading, but he will also frequently be taken out of the trading game before he can realize any sense of success trading the method(s) or patterns.

Exercise Discipline

Discipline is probably one of the most overused words in forex trading education. However, despite the clich¨¦, discipline continues to be the most important behaviour one can master to become a profitable trader. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan.

It¡¯s the ability to give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the market simply because you are uncomfortable with risk. Discipline is also the ability to continue to trade the methods and patterns even after you¡¯ve suffered losses. Do your best to cultivate the degree of discipline required to be a world-class trader.

Employ Risk-to-Reward Ratios

The following shows you possible risk-to reward ratios, and the win ratios required to break even in a trading system.

Risk-to-Reward Ratio (in pips)and Win Ratio Required to Break Even(%)

40/20 (2 to 1) = 67%, 40/40 (1 to1) = 50%, 40/60 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
40/80 (1 to 2) = 33.5%,
60/20 (3 to 1) = 75%,
60/60 (1 to 1) = 50%,
60 /90 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
60/120 (1 to 2) = 33.5%

Important Note

Never risk more pips on a trade then you plan to make. It doesn¡¯t make sense to risk 100 pips in order to make only 10. Why? See below example.

Profit taking level (pips): 10
Stop used or pips at risk: 100

You win 10 times which makes 100 winning pips. You ONLY lose once and have to give back all profits!!!

This type of trading makes no sense and you will lose on the long term guaranteed!

Forex Money Management

Forex money management is one of the most important things you can learn before you actually begin making live trades.

The money management principles discussed here will teach you how to avoid the costly mistakes many new traders make, often to the degree that they lose their entire investment on the first handful of trades.

Psychology is really the most important factor to money management in forex. You have to be able to separate yourself from any emotional attachment you may have to your money. This is not very easy to do, but it works and it can be done.

If you allow yourself to become emotional on a trade, you will not exit the trade properly, and this could mean holding on to a trade when you should have let it go, or letting go before the trade had a chance to turn profitable.

First and foremost, you should consider leverage and risk. It is advisable that you never risk more than two percent of your account balance on any trade. However, some go further and allow for as much as ten percent, but never more than that. This gives you the ability to withstand market fluctuations, and if the trade goes bad, you still have money to try again. You should never operate under the assumption that you will profit from every trade. You should also plan for losses. Therefore, most traders will tell you that the best thing to do is to keep your gains large and your losses small. Develop your trading strategy around this idea.

Keep track of your gains and losses. Keeping accurate and detailed records of your account activity will allow you to see whether or not the strategy is working, or if it needs to be re-built.

Never go blindly into trading without a way to keep track of results. You will lose all of your funds and never understand why it happened.

Finally, it is highly advisable that you first practice a strategy on a demo account. Nearly all brokers offer a virtual account whereupon you make trades in real-time, but with imaginary money, so nothing is risked. This is the best way to test a strategy before you put your real money on the line.

However, be careful, once again, of the psychology of trading. When you play with fake money, nothing is risked. When real money is on the line, you must not get emotional. If you do, you will find yourself with very different results, most likely losses, than you had with the demo account.

Stock Market Money Management Skills

Let's start by saying: You can't be afraid to take a loss. The investors that are the most successful in the stock market are the people who are willing to lose money.

Having a strategy and/or a specific philosophy is an excellent starting point to investing but it won't mean a thing if you can't manage your money. As I have said a million times: without cash, you can't invest.

Most investors spend far too much time trying to figure out the exact pivot point or perfect entry strategy and too little time on money management. The most important aspect to investing is cutting your losses, 90% of the battle is won by protecting your capital, regardless of the strategy.

Most successful money managers only make money 50-55% of time. This means that successful individual investors are going to be wrong about half the time. Since this is the case, you better be ready to accept your losses and cut them while they are small. By cutting losses quickly and allowing your winners to ride the up-trend, you will consistently finish the year with black ink.

Here are some methods that can help you with money management:

Set a predetermined stop loss (you must know where to cut the loss before it happens ¡°this will help control emotions when the time comes)." A 7-10% stop loss insurance policy is best. Tighten the stop loss range in down markets and loosen the range in strong bull markets.

Establish smaller positions if your account has had a recent losing streak (the losses may be telling you important information such as a critical turning point, it may be time to sell and get out).

If you think you are wrong or if the market is moving against you, cut your position in half ¡°this is the best insurance policy on Wall Street."

If you cut your position in half two times, you will be left with only 25% of the original position ¡°the remaining stock is no longer a big deal as your risk is very low."

If you sell out of a trade prematurely based on a minor correction, you can always reestablish the position again.

Initial position sizing plays a big part in money management ¡°don't take on too big of a position relative to your portfolio size. Novice investors should never use their entire account on one trade no matter how small the account

Know when you would like to get out of a position after a considerable profit has been made. Signs of topping could be a climax run, a spinning top or higher highs on lower volume.

Finally, cut any trade that doesn't act the way you originally analyzed it to act.

With these guidelines, you will be well on your way to solid money management skills that will help you profit in Wall Street year in and year out. Always remember, you are going to take-on losing trades at least half of the time. This is a tough concept to accept for most novice investors but it a fact. If you don't cut losses, you won't be investing for very long as you will run out of cash and the desire to continue to invest.